shinier - Bing 词典shinier是shiny的比较级美 ['?a?ni] 英 ['?a?ni] adj.晴朗的；发光的；辉煌的；光亮的网络光鲜的；春丽比较级：  最高级：  adj.+n.,,,,adj.1.晴朗的;发光的;辉煌的;光亮的;闪闪发亮的;有光泽的2.磨亮的;磨光的;磨损的1.
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15年每周经济学人报刊中英文对照
空气污染 英国需要采取更多措施来净化污浊的空气 Air pollution 空气污染 The big smoke 雾都 Britain needs to do more to clean up its dirty air 英国需要采取更多措施来净化污浊的空气VISITING Oxford Street, a road teeming with tatty shops and overcrowded with people, is plainly a trial. Less plainly, levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a noxious gas, have been found to be around three times higher there than the legal limit. In 2013 the annual mean concentration of NO2 on the street was one of the highest levels found anywhere in Europe.来到牛津街，你会看到街道两边布满了各式杂乱的商店，而道路上人满为患。行走在这条街上，很明显是 个磨练。不为人觉察的是，这里有毒气体二氧化氮(NO2)测出含量超出法定水平的约三倍以上。２０１３ 年，这条街的 NO2 年均浓度是欧洲最高之一。British air is far cleaner than it was a few decades ago. Fewer people use coal- old industrial plants have been decommissioned. But since 2009 levels of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter, coarse or fine particles that are linked to lung cancer and asthma, have fallen more slowly. The exact number of deaths caused by dirty air is unknown. But in 2010 a government advisory group estimated that removing man-made fine particulate matter from the atmosphere would increase life expectancy for those born in 2008 by an average of six months.英国的空气比几十年前干净多了。使用燃煤炉灶的人越来越少；老工业厂已经停产。但自 2009 年起，氧 化氮、微粒物质、以及与肺癌和哮喘相关的粗、细颗粒含量的下降速度减慢了。因污浊空气所引发的死亡 人数是未知的。但 2010 年，一个政府顾问组估算如果将大气中人为造成的微粒物质除去的话，2008 年的 出生人口人均寿命将增加六个月。Much of the slowdown is the result of fumes from diesel cars, which were championed by successive governments because they use less fuel and thus produce less carbon dioxide than petrol cars. In 2001 only 14% of al by 2013 the proportion had increased to 35%. (Greener “hybrid” and electric cars have increased ninefold since 2006, but account for just 0.5% of the entire fleet.) Second-hand cars are particularly noxious, but even newer ones have not been as clean as hoped. Many cars that belched out few pollutants in tests produced more when on the roads.下降速度放缓的大部分原因在于柴油汽车排放的尾气―这为历任政府所支持，因为柴油汽车耗用更少的能 源，比汽油汽车排放更少的二氧化碳。2001 年，仅 14%的汽车使用柴油。2013 年，这个比例上涨到了 35%。 （更绿色的“混合动力”和电瓶车自 2006 年以来增加了九倍，但仅占汽车总量的 0.5%。）二手汽车尤其 有害，但新车也没所期望的那样清洁。很多车在污染物排放测试中排放量低，车在上路时却排放了更多。Climate change and geoengineering 气候变化与地质工程学 Fears of a bright planet 地球发光，令人担心 Experiments designed to learn more about ways of geoengineering the climate should be allowed to proceed 为更好地利用工程学手段研 究气候问题所设计的实验应该获准进行下去。SHINY things absorb less heat when left in the sun. This means that if the Earth could be made a little shinier it would be less susceptible to global warming. Ways to brighten it, such as adding nanoscale specks of salt to low clouds, making them whiter, or putting a thin haze of particles into the stratosphere, are the province of Dgeoengineering‖. The small band of scientists which have been studying this subject over the past decade or so have mostly been using computer models. Some of them are now proposing outdoor experiments―using seawater-fed sprayers to churn out particles of the exact size needed to brighten clouds, or spewing sulphur particles from underneath a large balloon 20km up in the sky.发光的物体放在太阳下面会吸收较少的热量。这就意味着如果让地球发一点光的话，受到全球变暖的影响就会小一些。让地球发光的方式，比方说在低空云层上添加纳米级的盐 微粒，让云变得更白，或者是将一层薄的雾状物洒向平流层，这些都属于地质工程学的范畴。过去十年左 右研究这一领域的一小批科学家主要使用计算机模型，其中一些人现在提出要做室外实验DD就是用装有海水的喷雾器射出大量使云彩发光所需的相同大小的粒子，或者从升到距地面 20 公里处的大型气球下喷 洒硫粒子。The aims are modest. The scientists hope to understand some of the processes on which these technologies depend, as a way of both gauging their feasibility (can you reliably make tiny puffs of sea salt brighten clouds?) and assessing their risks (how much damage to the ozone layer might a stratospheric haze do, and how might such damage be minimized?). The experiments would be far too small to have any climatic effects. The amount of sulphur put into the stratosphere by the experimental balloon would be 2% of what a passenger jet crossing the Atlantic emits in an hour.这样做的目标并不宏伟。科学家们希望能够了解这些技术所依托的一些过程，也是作为衡量其可行性（能否可靠使用微小的海盐粒子让云彩 发光？）和评估其风险（附着在平流层的雾状物会给臭氧层造成多大危害，如何把危害降到最低？）的方 式。这些实验对气候变化的影响微乎其微。实验所用的气球投入平流层的硫总量相当于横越大西洋的喷气 式客一小时喷射气体总量的 2%。Nonetheless, these experiments―and this whole line of research―are hugely controversial. Many scientists are skeptical about geoengineering and most greens are outraged. Opponents object to them for a range of reasons. Some are against the very idea of geoengineering and any experiments in the area, even those which pose no immediate risk to the environment. They abhor the hubris involved in trying to affect the mechanics of the climate and despair at the potential diversion of attention from controlling carbon emissions as the route to countering climate change. They find the idea of someCpossibly many―countries having the power to change the climate for the whole planet a geopolitical nightmare. Even modest experiments in geoengineering, according to this logic, are the beginnings of a slippery slope, one that will engender a false sense of security and domesticate an idea that should have always remained outrageous.尽管如此，这些实验以及整个研究领域存在巨大争议。许多科学家怀疑地质工 程学，多数绿党成员感到很气愤。反对的原因很多。一些人反对地质工程学这一学科和涉 及该领域的实验，甚至对环境不会立即造成风险的实验也遭到了反对。他们讨厌尽力影响 气候机制而产生的傲慢行为，并对应对气候变化过程中可能将注意力远离控制碳排放的行 为感到绝望。他们发现，一些（也可能是许多）国家有能力改变全球气候的想法是一个地 缘政治的梦魇。根据这一逻辑，即使是很小的地质工程实验也是大灾难的开端，会产生不 真实的安全感，并滋生一种永远都令人气愤的想法。Yet caving in to this opposition would raise, rather than reduce, the dangers to the planet. Geoengineering is not an alternative to mitigating climate change by cutting carbon emissions, but it may be needed as a complement to it. Although pressure for cuts in carbon emissions through negotiations such as those currently taking place in Lima is yielding results―witness the recent agreement by China and America on new reduction targets―it has so far been insufficient to the task, and emissions look set to rise for decades yet.然而，向这种反对 声音投降会增加而非减少对地球造成的危险。通过减少碳排放来缓解气候变化，地质工程 学并不是其备用方案，但可能是一种补充方案。尽管通过协商来解决减少碳排放问题的压 力会带来好的结果（例如目前在利马召开的气候变化峰会见证了中美两国制定新的减排目 标）,但是到目前为止，这么做是远远不够的，而且排放量还会在几十年里有所增加。 Even if emissions do eventually start to fall, the cuts will take decades to have any effect so temperatures are likely to go on going up for some time. Although they have not soared in the past couple of decades as they did in the 1980s and 1990s, there is a fair chance that this year will tie with the hottest on record. The planet is not getting cooler and the pressures on theclimate are unlikely to go away. It is therefore not too hard to imagine a world, decades hence, in which emissions are falling but temperatures are rising steeply and the ability to adapt to them has been stretched too far. An additional way to stabilize temperatures might then seem in order. Geoengineering offers that possibility.即使排放量最终真的会开始减少，也要在几十年之后才会见到成效，所以在一段时间内温度还是可能会上升的。尽管过去几十年温度不像上世纪八九十年代那 样上升得那么厉害，但是今年很有可能追平过往的最高温度纪录。地球不会降温，气候带来的压力也不可 能消失。所以不难想象，几十年后的世界，排放量减少，但是温度陡升，适应这样的环境无法做到。到那 时，让温度稳定下来的额外方式似乎可能成形，而地质工程学就会实现这一目标提供可能。Knowle ignorance can be worse 知识有危险，无知更危险。 Research on a question of such gravity will have implications beyond its scientific results. But that is a reason to hold the scientists to high standards, not to duck the experiment entirely. If the research consists of safe, well-conceived experiments designed to improve scientific understanding of th if it is conducted by people who openly discuss with the public the implicatio if it is funded by bodies that take the need for transparency and debate about the risks inherent in such research seriously: then it deserves to be approved.关于这一严重性问题的研究可能会带来科学以外的结果。但是这是让科学家保持高标准要求而不是完全回避实验的一个原因。如果研究是由 安全的，构思缜密的，旨在增强对操作过程的科学理解的实验组成，如果做研究的人公开讨论过研究的意 义如果为实验提供资金的机构能够认真对待研究本身的透明度和所造成风险的讨论，那样的话实验才能获 得批准。There are all sorts of reasons why geoengineering may prove impossible, either politically or scientifically. It may be too dangerous to countenance, and the circumstances which might make it an appealing complement to cutting emissions may never arise. But to treat research into the subject as taboo on the basis that ignorance is a viable defense against folly would be a dangerous mistake.地质工程学不可能实现有各种各样的原因，有政治上的原因或者科学上的原因。地质工程的做法太危险， 无法获得批准，而将其作为减少碳排放的补充方案也无法实现。但是如果忌讳这一研究领域，原因是无知 可以切实地捍卫愚蠢的话，那这就是一个很危险的错误了。Government dithering has not helped. Part of the problem is that several departments are responsible for air pollution. This means nobody has taken a lead on it, complains Joan Walley, a Labour MP who chairs an environmental committee that has released a series of damning reports. And few politicians are keen to bash drivers. Talking to Britons about car ownership is “like talking to an American about hand guns”, quips one air-pollution scientist 政府的犹豫不决并没有起到作用。部分问题在于有好几个部门都对空气污染负有责任。这意味着没有人愿意出 头，琼?沃利抱怨道，她是一名工党议员，也是一已发布一系列谴责报告的环境委员会的主席。很少有政 客愿意解雇司机。一名空气污染科学界嘲讽说，跟英国人谈论汽车所有权就像“跟美国人谈论手枪一样。”Some improvements have been made. In 2008 a “low-emission zone” was created in London, which targets large vans and coaches. A smaller “ultra low-emission zone” has been proposed for 2020, which would charge all vehicles that are not of a certain standard 12.50 (18.80) a day. European Commission fines for breaching limits may encourage cities to do more. But other countries are more ambitious: 60 such zones exist in Germany, targeting private cars as well as vans. In December Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris, announced that she wanted to ban diesel cars by 2020. Cities in Denmark and the Netherlands do more to boost cycling.成效还是有的。2008 年，伦敦设置了一个“低排放区域”，针对的是大卡车和长途公车。已有提案建议 在 2020 年建立一个更小的“超低排放区”，对没达到一定标准的所有车辆一天收费 12.5 英镑（18.8 美 元）。欧盟委员会对排烟限制的罚款措施可能促进城市采取进一步的行动。但是其他国家更加具备野心： 德国有 60 个类似的区域，既针对卡车也针对私人汽车。12 月，巴黎市长安娜?伊达尔戈宣布她希望在 2020 年前淘汰柴油汽车。丹麦城市和挪威更侧重于鼓励骑自行车。When a thick “pea souper” smog enveloped London in 1952, causing the deaths of around 4,000 people in one week, the government was compelled to push through legislation to clean the air. Perhaps the largest problem now is that, with rare exceptions such as a Saharan dust smog that covered the capital in April 2014, this new pollution is invisible. But policy-makers should not lose sight of it.当 1952 年伦敦被浓浓的”淡黄色烟雾”笼罩时，在一周内造成了约 4，000 人死亡，政府不得不立法来净 化空气。也许现在最大的问题是，除了像 2014 年 4 月笼罩首都的撒哈拉沙尘烟雾这样的少数情况外，这 种新污染是看不见的。但是政策制定者们不能看不见这一点。Household wealth 家庭财富 The balance-sheet boom 资产负债表的繁荣 Household wealth, and debt, is forecast to swell in 2015 预计 2015 年家庭财富和债务将膨胀 WITH the excesses of Christmas nearly over, Britons are planning their budgets for the new year. Their decisions will be crucial for the economy. After paying down debts to repair their balance-sheets in the years after the financial crisis, consumers are spending again. Yet wealth, like wages, remains lower than in 2007. A recovery in riches is an essential component of official forecasts for further growth.随着圣诞节购物狂潮接近尾声，英国人开始进行新一年的规划预算。他们的决定对经济状况至关重要。金 融危机之后几年，在偿还完资产负债表的债务后，消费又开始消费了。然而家庭财富和工资一样，仍然低 于 2007 年。财富复苏是官方预测未来发展的一个必要因素。When the financial crisis hit,wealth immediately suffered (unlike real wages, which hardly budged in 2008 but have fallen every year since). Household net worth―ie, assets minus debts― plummeted by 12% in 2008, driven by a 13% fall in housing wealth, which makes up just under half of all household assets. The hole is not yet filled: adjusting for inflation, housing wealth―168,000 ($261,000) per household― remains 13% below its pre-crisis peak. Financial wealth, which includes investments in stocks and shares, has fared slightly better, but is still down 4% on 2007. 当金融危机袭来时，财富首当其冲遭受损害（不像实际的工资，2008 年勉强回升但从那以后逐年下降）。家庭净值，也就是资产减去债务，在 2008 年骤然下降了 12%，这是受了约占家庭资产 一半的房屋财富下降 13%的影响。这个窟窿至今还没有被填上：通货膨胀调整、家庭财富(每户 168，000 英镑（261，000）美元)保持在比危机前峰值低 13%的水平。包括股票投资在内的金融财富稍有起色，但 仍比 2007 年低 7%。As a result, households reduced their debts from 2008. Savings jumped from around 7% of income pre-crisis to 11% by 2010. By 2013 the average household had 62,000 worth of debt, down 16% in real terms on 2007. Largely as a result of this frugality, household net worth, which averaged 320,000 in 2013, has recovered about half its losses from the crisis.其结果就是，自 2008 年以来，家庭 减少了债务。危机前约占收入 7%的储蓄在 2010 年达到了 11%。2013 年，每家约有 62，000 镑的债务，扣除物价因素比 2007 年降低了 16%。在这种俭省的影响下，2013 年平均为 320， 000 英镑的家庭净值已挽回了危机中一半的损失。 That suggests that balance-sheets are not fully patched up. Yet consumers hav since 2013 saving has hovered around its pre-crisis level.And forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), Britain's fiscal watchdog, see it falling further still, from 6.6% of income in 2014 to 5.4% in 2015 and then 4.8% by 2019.这表明资产负债表并没有完全被修补好。然而消费者已经开 始增加支出了，自 2013 年，储蓄就在危机前水平左右徘徊。英国财政监督部门预算责任办 公室(OBR)预测，储蓄将会进一步下降，从 2014 年收入的 6.6%下降到 2015 年的 5.4%，然 后到 2019 年的 4.8%。 Several factors lie behind the reversal. Better employment prospects mean workers are less in need of rainy-day funds. They might also expect wage growth and want to borrow against that future income. But the most significant factor is recent house-price growth, which boosts homeowners' wealth without them needing to save. House prices are up 17.5% on average since 2012 (30% in London) and the OBR reckons a further rise of 7.4% is on the cards in 2015.这个逆转背后有几个因素。更好的就业前景意味着工人们没那么需要雨天基金了。他们也可以期望涨工资和预支工资。但 最重要的一个因素就是最近的房价增长，这使房主的财富增长，不需要存钱了。自 2012 年以来，房价平 均上涨了 17.5%（伦敦上涨了 30%）。OBR 预测 2015 年可能会进一步上涨 7.4%。It was a housing boom that allowed the aggregate debt-to-income ratio to reach a record high of close to 170% before the crisis. The OBR now forecasts another balance-sheet boom, with debt surpassing its pre-crisis high in 2017 and reaching 184% of income by 2020.正是房屋市场的繁荣让整体上的债务收入比达到了历史新高，约是危机前的 170%。OBR 预测将有新一轮资产负债表繁荣，债务将在 2017 年超过危机前最高水平，在 2020 年达到收入的 184%。This is troubling. If puffed-up house prices prove temporary―as in 2007―high debt could leave households vulnerable and harm the financial system. Housing is illiquid, meaning that in a crisis fire-sales can cause prices to fall rapidly. Even at current levels―146% of income―the Bank of England rightly frets about household debt, and in October limited the number of high-risk mortgages banks can issue (the market has cooled slightly since). The bank's concern makes the OBR's forecast look either wrong or terrifying.这很棘手。如果和2007 年一样膨胀的房价只是暂时的，高额债务可能让家庭财富不堪一击并损害到财政系统。住房是不动 产，意味着在危机大甩卖中，房价可能骤跌。即使在现在水平――收入的 146%，英国央行担忧家庭债务 也无可厚非，在 10 月份，央行限制了能提供高风险抵押贷款的银行数（自那以后市场就稍微冷却了）。 央行的担忧使得 OBR 的预测看起来要么错了，要么令人惊恐。In addition, saving is lower than the figures suggest, according to a recent working paper by John Ralfe, a pensions consultant, and Bernard Casey of Warwick University. The (recently revised) statistics fail to count pension payouts as running down savings. Adjust for this and the savings rate fell to 0.2% in 2013 and will become more sharply negative if the OBR forecast is borne out. So much for an end to Christmas excess.另外，根据养老金顾问约翰?拉尔夫和华威大学的伯纳德?卡西的一篇工作论文所说，实际储蓄比数据显示的要低（最近修订的）数据没有将养老金支 出当作储蓄流失算进去。对此进行调整后，2013 年的储蓄率下降到了-0.2%，如果 OBR 的预测成真，那这 一负数将更大。这就是本次圣诞购物狂欢的大体状况。Astrophysics 天体物理 Dust to dust 尘归尘，土归土 A dramatic recent “discovery” in physics is looking rather dodgy 近期，物理学中的一项戏剧性发现看上出非常模糊 IN MARCH Chao-Lin Kuo, an astrophysicist at Stanford University, filmed himself knocking on the door of his colleague Andrei Linde. In the 1980s Dr Linde was one of several cosmologists who developed the theory of cosmic inflation, whichholds that, in the first instants of its existence, the universe underwent a brief period of faster-than-light expansion.三月，斯坦福大学天体物理学家郭兆林拍下了自己造访同事 Andrei Linde 的一幕。上世纪 80 年代，Linden 博士是少有的几位发展了宇宙膨胀论的宇 宙学家。宇宙膨胀论认为，在其出现的那一瞬间，宇宙经历了一段超光速膨胀。Because inflation neatly cleaves several knotty problems in cosmology, many astrophysicists (though not all) subscribe to the theory. But direct, unambiguous evidence for it has been lacking. That was why Dr Kuo was visiting Dr Linde―to tell him that, thanks to the work of a telescope in Antarctica called BICEP-2, such evidence had now been found. After digesting the news, an emotional Dr Linde broke open a bottle of champagne to celebrate. The video has been viewed almost 3m times.因为膨胀论能完整解释宇宙学中的一些难题，许多天体物理学家都倾向于该理论。但是膨胀论仍缺乏直接、清晰的证据。这正是郭博士拜访 Linde 博士的原因―在南极洲的 BICEP-2 天文望远镜发现了这种证据。收到消息后，Linde 博士开了一瓶香槟来庆祝。这段视频已经被浏 览了将近 300 万次。It now seems that Dr Kuo might have to make a new video, informing Dr Linde that he has wasted a bottle of bubbly. A paper just released by the team behind Planck, a European space telescope, casts serious doubt on the BICEP-2 result. What looked like a clear window back into the earliest moments of the universe might simply have been a faint glow from the diaphanous clouds of dust that exist between the stars.现在好像郭博士不得不再做一个视频，告诉 Linde 博士他浪费了一瓶香槟。新近有文献报道称，欧洲的普朗克天文望远镜拍到了对 BICEP 研究构成重大质疑的结果。回溯到宇宙最初 时间，看上去似乎是清晰的窗户的图像可能仅仅是恒星间的透明灰云折射的淡淡光芒。The BICEP-2 team, led by John Kovac of Harvard University, had been studying the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMB)―a weak bath of radiation, left over from the Big Bang, that suffuses the universe. They were looking for evidence of primordial gravitational waves. These are ripples in the fabric of space, created, if the theory of inflation is correct, as the early universe was undergoing its post-creation growth spurt.由哈佛大学 John Kovac 领导的 BICEP-2 小组长期研究宇宙微波背景辐射，即一种由大爆炸产生的微弱辐射，弥漫在宇宙中。他们在找寻原始引力波 的证据。如果膨胀论是正确的的话，那么这种由宇宙在初创后迸发过程中产生的波会存在于空间架构中。A dusty trail 布满尘埃的小径 Such waves should have left a distinctive, polarised mark imprinted upon the CMB. And, in a press conference on March 17th, that is exactly what the BICEP-2 team claimed to have found. It was the biggest news in physics since the discovery, in 2012, of the Higgs boson, and it was widely covered (including in The Economist). Not only would the BICEP result have confirmed the theory of inflation, but studying the gravitational waves it purported to have found would have given cosmologists a way to look back to the very earliest moments of the universe.这种波应该在宇宙微波辐射背景上留下了一个独特的、极化的记号。并且，在 3 月17 日的新闻发布会上，BICEP-2 小组宣布发现的，正是这个记号。这是从 2012 年希格斯玻色子发现以来， 物理学界最大的新闻，并广为传播（包括《经济学人》）。BICEP 的结果不仅确认了膨胀论这么简单，研 究他们宣称所发现的引力波，将为宇宙学家提供一条回溯宇宙最开始的时刻的方法。But up. the Thegravitational waves are not the only things that BICEP-2 might have picked The Milky Way is filled with thin clouds of interstellar dust which, under influence of the galaxy's magnetic field, scatter and polarise starlight. BICEP team were confident that the contamination from the dust was smallenough not to affect their detection of gravitational waves. But the behaviour of the dust is poorly understood, says Chris Lintott, an astronomer at Oxford University, and not everyone was convinced.但是引力波并不是 BICEP-2 发现的唯一一件事情。银河中遍布的星级尘埃，在星系磁场的作用下，散射或极化星光。BICEP 小组相信，灰尘的污染非常小， 不足以影响其对引力波的测定。但是牛津大学的天文学家 Chris Lintott 称，对灰尘行迹我们理解不足， 而且无法令所有人信服。The Planck results suggest that they were right to be sceptical. The European telescope has just unveiled a map of dust density across the entire sky. It suggests that, contrary to the BICEP team's hopes, the signal from the dust is so strong that the telescope might well have seen no primordial gravity waves at all.Planck 小组的结果说明，怀疑论者是正确的。欧洲天文望远镜最近提出了一份整个天空中的灰尘的密度分布图。分布图显示，同 BICEP 小组的假定相反，灰尘发出的信号很强，天文望远镜甚至无法检 测到任何的原始引力波。That, at least, is the most likely interpretation, but it is not the only one. The Planck team are careful to stop short of saying that their results are fatal to BICEP's claims, pointing out that applying their data to the BICEP results involves considerable “statistical and systematic uncertainties”. There are, in other words, a couple of glimmers of hope that signs of inflation have actually been seen. One is that the precise behaviour of the dust is still mysterious, which means the mathematical transformations used to apply Planck's data to BICEP's results may turn out to be incorrect. And even if those maths are sound, statistics may ride to the rescue―for if the amount of radiation from the dust is at the lowest end of Planck's estimates, a small gravitational-wave signal may survive.至少这是最有可能的解释。但却不是唯一的。普朗克小组谨慎地不曾宣称他们的结果对 BICEP 小组的声明有颠覆效果，而是指出，将他们所获得的数据应用于 BICEP 的结论中会产生可观的“统计学和系统上的不确定性”。换句话说，有些闪烁有望作为膨胀论确实 存在的证据。一方面，灰尘行迹的精确表述依然是个谜，也就是说，将普朗克小组的数据转换为 BICEP 结 果的数学过程可能是错误的。而且即使这些数学转换可靠，数据也可能出现问题。因为如果灰尘的辐射数 量处在普朗克小组估计的最低端，可能会有一点点引力波信号留存。Rowing back on a triumphant announcement about the first instants of creation may be a little embarrassing, but the saga is a useful reminder of how science works. There is no suggestion that anyone has behaved dishonourably. Admittedly, the BICEP team's original press conference looks, with hindsight, seriously overconfident. More information-sharing between the various gravitational wavehunters, all of whom guard their data jealously, might have helped tone down the triumphalism. But science, ideally, proceeds by exactly this sort of goodfaith argument and honourable squabbling―until the weight of evidence forces one side to admit defeat.收回早期的胜利宣言可能有点尴尬，但是这个冒险非常恰当地 提醒了我们，科学工作者的工作方式。没人会觉得谁的表现有愧其身份。固然，BICEP 小 组最初的新闻发布会，事后来看，过度自信了。在各种引力波守望者当中共享贡多信息可 能有助于缓和这种胜利主义，可惜他们都视自己的数据如命根子。但是，想象中的科学， 正是通过这种善意的争论和尊重彼此的吵闹，直到证据的分量迫使一方承认失败。 That could happen soon: the Planck and BICEP teams have pooled their data and are working on a joint paper, expected to be published in the next few months. Information from other gravity-wave hunting experiments―including some run by the BICEP team themselves―will shed extra light, too. It is not yet impossible that Dr Kovac and his colleagues will be proved right after all. But at this point it would take a brave cosmologist to bet on it.这一幕可能很快上演：普朗克小组和 BICEP 小组已将各自的数据凑到一起，并联合撰写论文，预计将于接下来的几个月中发表。通过其他引 力波探测实验，包括 BICEP 小组自己的，将会摆脱多余的光。可能最终 Kovac 博士及其同事无法自圆其说。 但这一时刻，需要勇敢的天文学家站出来孤注一掷。 Display screens 显示屏 Going through a phase 相转变 A new way to create electronic images 新的电子图案显示方法 Wave of the future?未来之波CRYSTAL displays are a familiar and ubiquitous technology. But if Harish Bh askaran ofOxford University is right, their days may be numbered. The essen tial feature of LCDs is thatthe pixels in them switch between amorphous an d crystallike phases, which changes theiroptical properties. In a paper in this week's N ature, Dr Bhaskaran and his colleagues describesomething similar in a solid material. At the least, that would stop the messy abstractimpressionist patterns which happen when an LCD is dropped too hard. At mo st, it might openup a new range of applications, from clothes that change col our to dimmable windscreens.液晶显示屏是一项成熟而广泛应用的技术。但如果牛津大学的 Harish Bhaskaran 的想法实现，液晶屏 的好景也就没几天了。LCD 的基本特征是其像素在非晶相和类晶相间转化，因此改变其光学性质。在本 周的《自然》杂志上，Bhaskaran 博士及其同事陈述了一种类似的固体材料。至少该材质可以防止当 LCD 猛烈坠地后产生麻烦的抽象印象派图案。最理想情况下，它会有新的应用范围，从变色布料到可调 光挡风玻璃。Solid phasechange materials are already used to store data in optical memory disks. They arealso being considered for use in memory chips, because the s witch between amorphous andcrystalline states alters their electrical proper ties in ways that can store electronic bits of data.Dr Bhaskaran, though, has s hown that thin enough films of the right sort of material can bemade to chang e colour, too.固态相变材料已经用于在光储存盘中储存数据。也可能被用于记忆芯片，因为其非晶态和晶态之间的转变也改变了其电学性能，因此他们能储存电子数据。然而，Bhaskaran 博士展示了一种 特定材料膜，在足够薄的情况下也可以改变颜色。This property would make them suitable both for displays that rely on reflec ted light (so- electronic paper) and the older, backlit sort that called rely on transmitted light. The resulting displayswould be thin and could be flexible if printed on the right material-increasing the range ofapplications they might be used in. And they would consume little power, since energy need b eused only when a pixel has to be flipped from one phase to another. 这一性能将使其适合于反射光显示（所谓电子纸）和早期的依赖透射光的背光显示。所得显示屏不仅薄，而 且铺在合适材料上时非常灵活，增加了其应用范围。而且它消耗的功率更少，因为这种材料只需要在变相 的时候消耗能量。The researchers' material of choice is an alloy of germanium, antimony and t ellurium. Both thecrystalline and the amorphous phases of this substance a re stable at any temperature adevice is likely to experience, and thin films of it are more or less transparent. The powerneeded to effect the phase cha nge could be fed to individual pixels by electrodes made ofindium tin oxide, w hich is also transparent.研究人员选择的材料是镓、锑和碲合金。这一物质的晶态和非晶态在任何设备适用温度下都很稳定。其薄 膜也几乎透明。要激发相转变所需的能量可以由透明的铟锡氧化物电极向单个像素提供。The colour of a pixel would depend not only on its phase, but also on its thick ness, whichwould affect the way light waves being reflected within it interfe re with one another, cancellingout some frequencies while amplifying others. (The effect is similar to the creation of colours bya thin layer of oil on a pudd le.) Generally, the alloy layer needs to be thinner than 20nanometres for th at to happen.单个像素的颜色不仅取决于其相态，也同其厚度有关。厚度会影响光波在两个像素间界面处的反射，削弱 部分频率，加强其他频率。（此效应类似于池塘表面薄油层产生的色彩。）一般来说，合金层需要薄于 20 nm 才会发生这一现象。To demonstrate their idea, the researchers sprayed films of their alloy onto pieces of silicon,quartz and plastic. They then used a device called an atom ic-force microscope, which has atip a few nanometres across, to apply appropriate electric currents in a grid pattern acrossthe film's surface. Thi s grid mimicked an array of pixels, creating a stable pattern. The result,as t heir picture of a Japanese wave shows, is a recognisable image―if not, yet, a perfect one.为了证明其观点，研究人员将其合金铺覆到硅，石英和塑料上。然后他们使用所谓原子力显微镜的设备来施加合适的电流在横穿膜表面的网格上。原子力显微镜尖端仅有几个纳米大小。网格 模仿像素排列，产生稳定的模式。他们对日本电波的拍摄结果是一个可识别的图像，即便不可识别，也是 非常完美的。Adding the indium-tin-oxide electrodes is a more complicated process, But to show it can bedone in principle, Dr Bhaskaran has made a single pixel thi s way. Whether his idea will get offthe lab bench and into the shops remains to be seen. It is by no means the only suggestionaround for a new generation of display screens. But it looks plausible.加入铟锡氧化物电极是更为复杂的过程，但是可以从原理上展示其过程。Bhaskaran 用这种方式制备了单个像素。他的想法能否从实验室走进商用还 是未知。这绝不是新一代显示屏的唯一方案，但颇得看好。 Treating mental illness Body and soulA professional schism hinders Britain's mental-health system THE day after Mandy Peck tried to electrocute herself in the bath her family took her to a mental-health centre in Chelmsford and asked for help. They were told that there were no beds available and sent home. Two days later Ms Peck jumped to her death from a multi-storey car park. She left a daughter behind. Ms Peck would not have been turned away had she arrived at hospital with a broken leg. Yet the National Health Service (NHS) often fails those suffering from a broken spirit. The numbers are fuzzy, but about one Briton in four suffers a mental-health problem at some time in their life, ranging from mild anxiety to severe schizophrenia. Less than a third of those receive treatment. That is in part because many sufferers are ashamed to seek help, but it is also due to funding gaps and disorganisation within the NHS. The result is a system in crisis, says Sue Bailey, a former president of the Royal College of Psychiatrists. This failure is costly. Mental-health problems cause more suffering in Britain than physical illness, poverty or unemployment, according to Richard Layard, an economist and author of a book on happiness. People with severe mental illnesses have higher rates of physical illness than the general public. According to the King's Fund, a think-tank, this costs the NHS between ￡8 billion ($13 billion) and ￡13 billion each year. Sufferers are also more li mental illness has become the most common reason to claim disability benefits. Researchers at the OECD, a club of rich countries, reckon getting mentally-ill people back to work could increase employment in Britain by nearly 5%. Part of the problem is money. The consequences of mental illness cost the British economy over ￡100 billion a year, according to the Centre for Mental Health, a think-tank, yet the NHS spends just ￡11.3 billion on the problem. Some, like Mr Layard, see misplaced priorities. Doctors spend about ￡3.5 billion a year treating the depression and anxiety disorders suffered by some 6m British adults―a vast amount less than is spent treating the physical ailments of roughly 500,000 patients in the last year of their lives. Recent cuts to health spending have fallen hardest on mental-health care, just as doctors say demand is rising. The number of NHS beds for patients with mental illness has declined by over 30% since 2003. Many facilities arenow full. As a result patients are having to travel long distances or wait months for care. To free up room, a mental-health centre in London has discharged patients to bed-and-breakfasts. Others are not so lucky: sufferers picked up by police are often diagnosed in jail cells. This week Norman Lamb, the minister for care, said that services for young people are “stuck in the dark ages”. A second challenge arises from the way the NHS is structured. Mental-health care is staffed and funded separately from physical care―treatment is focused on the mind or body, but rarely on both at once. Yet research shows depressed people are more likely than others to develop heart and lung disease, and to suffer from strokes. Mental illness also appears to make diseases more lethal. On average men with mental-health problems die 20 years earlier than those without them (most from causes other than suicide), says the British Medical Association. The government is alive to these problems. Britain's spending on mental health may be inadequate, but it compares favourably with that of other rich countries. From April ministers have promised to limit the long waiting times that prevent many people using mental-health services. And in 2012 the government pledged to give mental health care equal priority to physical care, enshrining this principle as part of the Health and Social Care Act. But critics complain that the promise has yet to deliver much practical change. Reform advocates would like better integration between mental- and physical-health care. “Liaison psychiatry” involves placing mental-health specialists in hospitals to work alongside doctors. The Centre for Mental Health found that one such initiative in Birmingham reduced the length of hospital stays and the number of readmissions and improved the health and well-being of patients. The centre calculated that the programme saved four times its costs. Yet such services are often meagre. It would be better and cheaper to keep sufferers out of hospital altogether, says Emma Stanton, who runs Beacon UK, a mental-health consultancy. Ms Stanton recommends treatment at home through teams of doctors, nurses and social workers. Instead of swallowing antidepressants, health bosses would like sufferers of mild conditions to receive help under a programme called Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT), which aims to expand the use of treatments such as cognitive behavioural therapy. This helps individuals challenge the gloomy thinking that can lead to anxiety and depression. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), which evaluates treatments, considers it good value. Yet David Clark, an adviser for IAPT, says it reaches only a fraction of those who need it. He would like its budget doubled. Convincing politicians to cough up more funds will be tough. Some critics fear that beefing up treatment of the most common mental-health problems risks saddling the system with overwhelming costs. Fortunately there is a lot that can be achieved without more cash. Many mental-health services still do not meet the standards recommended by NICE, and communication between services is poor. Elaborate therapies are not always necessary―one effective treatment for those suffering mental illness is keeping them in a job. Other types of therapy, say advocates, should pay for themselves by saving healthcare costs and increasing productivity. Improving Britons' mental health is not only humane, but economical.心理疾病治疗 身体与灵魂 一个专业性的分裂阻碍英国心理健康系统 在曼迪? 派克试图在浴室用电击自杀的第二天，她的家人将她送至且切姆斯福德的一家心理健康中心寻求 帮助。他们被告知中心没有空余床位，随即回家。两天之后，派克于一个多层停车场跳楼自杀。她死后还 留下了一个女儿。如果派克到达医院时是腿部骨折的话，她就不会被医院拒收了。然而英国的国民医疗保健制度（NHS） 总是放弃了那些饱受残缺心灵折磨的人们。尽管没有确切数据，但平均每四个英国人中就有一个人在他们 生命中的某个时期受到心理健康问题的困扰，这些问题小到轻微的焦虑症，大到严重的精神分裂。可是不 到三分之一的人选择接受心理治疗。因为从某种程度来讲很多病人都羞于寻求这方面的帮助，但这也归咎 于 NHS 内部的资金缺口和杂乱无章。英国皇家精神科医学院的前任院长苏? 贝利称这样的结果使整个制度 陷入危机。 这个失败的代价很高。据著有一本关于幸福的书的经济学家理查德? 莱亚德称，心理健康问题在英国给人 们带来的痛苦多过生理疾病、贫困或失业。有严重心理疾病的人们比一般人有更高的生理疾病得病率。据 智囊团君主基金分析，这个每年耗费了 NHS80 亿英镑（约合 130 亿美元）到 13 亿英镑。同时患有心 理疾病的患者犯罪几率更高；心理疾病已经成为索赔伤残补助的最常见的理由。经合组织（OECD，发达 国家组成的俱乐部）的研究人员估算如果将那些有心理疾病的人送回去工作，那么英国的就业率可以提高 将近 5%。 这问题有一部分原因是因为钱。根据智囊团心理健康中心调查，心理疾病致使英国经济一年花费至少 1000 亿英镑，但 NHS 为此只花费了 113 亿。一些像莱亚德一样的人了解其中的轻重缓急。一些医生一 年花费 35 亿英镑治疗大约 600 万患有抑郁和情绪障碍的英国成年人，这巨额费用中大部分都用来治疗 50 万弥留病人的生理疾病。 最近健康消费的削减使心理健康护理的境况跌入谷底，正如医生所说，人们对于心理健康的需求正在提升。 NHS 提供给心理疾病患者的床位自 2003 年起已经减少了至少 30%。很多设备现在也没有空余的了。因 此病人必须长途跋涉去别的地方或者排队等待数月来寻求治疗。为了腾出空间，伦敦一家心理健康中心向 出院病人提供住宿和早餐。其他的病人就没那么幸运了。一些病人经常碰到警察，被带回监狱诊断。本周 医疗部长诺曼? 兰布称，对于年轻人来讲，心理健康服务“仍就停留在黑暗时期”。 第二个挑战来自 NHS 的制度结构。心理健康保健的提供和资助都与生理健康保健是分开的。因为治疗通 常针对精神或身体，但鲜少两者兼顾。但研究显示抑郁的人比其他人更易患心脏和肺部的疾病，且更易患 中风。患上心理疾病似乎也更易患上绝症。通常患上心理疾病的人比那些没有患心理疾病的人少活 20 年 （大多心理疾病会导致患者死于除自杀之外的原因）。英国医学会如是说。 政府已经意识到这些问题。英国对于心理健康的支出或许不够，但与其它富有国家相比算是不错的了、自 4 月部长们已经承诺会限制阻止很多人使用心理健康服务的长时间等待。2012 年政府保证给予心理健康 保健与生理保健平等优先权，并将这一原则作为健康与社会保健法案的一部分。但批评家们抱怨承诺并未 带来很多实际变化。 改革倡议者想要心理和生理保健更好的一体化。“联络精神病学”涉及到心理健康专家在医院和医生一起工 作。心理健康中心发现,伯明翰的一项此类实验减少了病人住院时间长度和再次入院的次数，并且提高病 人的健康和幸福感。中心计算得出这项计划花费只占成本四分之一，但这类服务还不完善。 心理健康咨询公司英国灯塔的运营者艾玛? 斯坦顿称，将患者在院外集中是个更好且更实惠的方法。斯坦 顿推荐在家通过治疗团队的医生、护士以及社会工作者治疗的方法。与服用抗抑郁药相比卫生官员们更希 望中等程度的病患接受一个名为“使更多人获得心理治疗”（IAPT）的项目的帮助。这个项目旨在扩大认 知行为疗法的使用。这能帮助个人挑战可能会导致焦虑和抑郁的悲观想法。国家健康和护理研究所 （NICE）评估此项治疗并且认为物有所值、但 IAPT 的顾问大卫? 克拉克称项目预算只够一小部分需要它 的人接受治疗。他希望预算可以翻倍。 说服政客们挤出更多的资金是艰难的。一些批评家担心加强治疗最常见的心理健康问题会有成本过高使体 系不堪重负的风险。幸运的是有很多事情无需更多金钱便可做到。很多心理健康服务不符合 NICE 推荐的 标准，并且服务之间的交流也很贫乏。复杂的治疗并不总是必要的――对于病患来说，一个有效的治疗方 法就是让他们保持工作。提倡者称，其他的治疗方式应该通过节约健康保健成本和提高生产力来为病患支 付。提高英国心理健康不仅是关乎人道，也关系到经济。Autism Why it's not “Rain Woman” Women have fewer cognitive disorders than men do because their bodies are better at ignoring the mutations which cause them AUTISM is a strange condition. Sometimes its symptoms of “social blindness” (an inability to read or comprehend the emotions of others) occur alone. This is dubbed high-functioning autism, or Asperger's syndrome. Though their fellow men and women may regard them as a bit odd, high-functioning autists are often successful (sometimes very successful) members of society. On other occasions, though, autism manifests as part of a range of cognitive problems. Then, the condition is debilitating. What is common to those on all parts of the so-called autistic spectrum is that they are more often men than women―so much more often that one school of thought suggests autism is an extreme manifestation of what it means, mentally, to be male. Boys arefour times more likely to be diagnosed with autism than girls are. For highfunctioning autism, the ratio is seven to one. Moreover, what is true of autism is true, to a lesser extent, of a lot of other neurological and cognitive disorders. Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is diagnosed around three times more often in boys than in girls. “Intellectual disability”, a catch-all term for congenital low IQ, is 30-50% more common in boys, as is epilepsy. In fact, these disorders frequently show up in combination. For instance, children diagnosed with an autistic-spectrum disorder[1] often also receive a diagnosis of ADHD. Autism's precise causes are unclear, but genes are important. Though no mutation which, by itself, causes autism has yet been discovered, well over 100 are known that make someone with them more vulnerable to the condition. Most of these mutations are as common in women as in men, so one explanation for the divergent incidence is that male brains are more vulnerable than female ones to equivalent levels of genetic disruption. This is called the female-protective model. The other broad explanation, social-bias theory, is that the difference is illusory. Girls are being under-diagnosed because of differences either in the ways they are assessed, or in the ways they cope with the condition, rather than because they actually have it less. Some researchers claim, for example, that girls are better able to hide their symptoms. The weaker sex To investigate this question, Sebastien Jacquemont of the University Hospital of Lausanne and his colleagues analysed genetic data from two groups of children with cognitive abnormalities. Those in one group, 800 strong, were specifically autistic. Those in the other, 16,000 strong, had a range of problems. Dr Jacquemont has just published his results in the American Journal of Human Genetics. His crucial finding was that girls in both groups more often had mutations of the sort associated with abnormal neural development than boys did. This was true both for copy-number variants (CNVs, which are variations in the number of copies in a chromosome of particular sections of DNA), and single-nucleotide variants (SNVs, which are alterations to single genetic letters in the DNA message). On the face of it, this seems compelling evidence for the female-protective model. Since all the children whose data Dr Jacquemont examined had been diagnosed with problems, if the girls had more serious mutations than the boys did, that suggests other aspects of their physiology were covering up the consequences. Females are thus, if this interpretation is correct, better protected from developing symptoms than males are. And, as further confirmation, Dr Jacquemont's findings tally with a study published three years ago, which found that CNVs in autistic girls spanned more genes (and were thus, presumably, more damaging), than those in autistic boys. The counter-argument is that if girls are better at hiding their symptoms, only the more extreme female cases might turn up in the diagnosed groups. If that were true, a greater degree of mutation might be expected in symptomatic girls as a consequence. However, Dr Jacquemont and his colleagues also found that damaging CNVs were more likely to be inherited from a child's mother than from his or her father. They interpret this as further evidence of female-protectedness. Autistic symptoms make people of either sex less likely to become parents. If mothers are the source of the majority of autism-inducing genes in children, it suggests they are less affected by them.None of this, though, explains the exact mechanism that makes boys more susceptible than girls. On this question, too, there are two predominant theories. The first is that males are more sensitive because they have only one X-chromosome. This makes them vulnerable to mutations on that chromosome, because any damaged genes have no twin to cover for them. One cognitive disorder, fragile-X syndrome, is indeed much more common in men for this reason. Dr Jacquemont's study, however, found only a limited role for X-chromosome mutations. That suggests the genetic basis of the difference is distributed across the whole genome. The other kind of explanation is anatomical. It is based on brain-imaging studies which suggest differences between the patterns of internal connection in male and female brains. Male brains have stronger local connections, and weaker long-range ones, than do female brains. That is similar to a difference seen between the brains of autistic people and of those who are not. The suggestion here is that the male-type connection pattern is somehow more vulnerable to disruption by the factors which trigger autism and other cognitive problems. Why that should be, however, remains opaque.自闭症 为什么它不是“雨女” 与男性相比，患有认知障碍的女性较少，因为她们自身的身体能更好的忽略导致认知障碍的基因突变 自闭症是一种奇怪的状态。有时它是由“社会失明”症状（无法阅读或理解他人的情绪）导致的孤独。这被 称为高功能自闭症，或亚斯伯格症候群。虽然他们的男性和女性同伴会认为他们有点奇怪，但高功能自闭 患者通常是成功的社会人士（有时非常成功）。然而，另一些场合，自闭症表现为一系列认知问题的一部 分。那么，条件逐渐衰弱。对于那些所有被称为自闭症患者范围的人来说共同点是男性远多于女性，以至 于一个学校认为自闭症意味着一种极端的在心理上表现为一名男性。比起女孩而言，男孩有四倍的可能性 被诊断为自闭症。至于高功能自闭症，比率达到 7 比 1。 此外，自闭症的真相，在较小程度上，就是神经病学的认知障碍的真相。被诊断为注意力缺乏症的男大约 是女孩的三倍。“智力残疾”，一个全面概括先天性智商低下的术语，在男孩中常见比例多达 30%~50%， 癫痫症也是。事实上，这些疾病经常共同出现。例如，被诊断为自闭症谱系障碍的小孩经常也收到 ADHD 的诊断。 导致自闭症的确切原因还不知道，但是基因很重要原因。虽然还没发现是由于它自身的突变导致自闭症， 但超过 100 个基因被认为是使某些人在环境影响下更容易受到攻击的对象。 这些突变在男性和女性中是一样普遍的，所以一个对分歧发生率的解释是对于同等的基因毁坏，男性大脑 比女性的更容易受伤害。这被称为女性保护模式。另一个广发的解释是社会偏见理论，认为这些不同是虚 幻的。这些被诊断不足的女孩，因为她们被评估的方式或对环境的处理不同，而不是他们真的很少有这个 症状。例如，一些研究者声称，女孩能更好的隐藏这些症状。 弱势性别 为了调查这个问题，洛桑医科大学的医生 Sebastien Jacquemont 和他的同事分析来自两组患有认识异 常症状孩子的基因数据。一组有 800 人明显确定患有自闭症；另一组是明显有一系列问题。 医生 Jacquemont 刚将他的研究成果发布在美国人类遗传学杂志上。他的关键发现是两组中，女孩比男 孩更多有伴随异常神经发展种类的基因突变。这在拷贝数量变异组（CNVs，一组对 DNA 特定部分的染 色体进行复制）和单核苷酸变异组（SNVs，修改 DNA 信使中单独的基因字母）两组中都是对的。 从表面上看，这似乎是令人信服的女性保护模式证据。因为 Jacquemont 医生检验的所有孩子的数据都 被诊断有问题，如果比起男孩，女孩有更严重的突变，那就表面他们生理机能的其他方面掩盖了结果。如 果这个解释是正确的，因此女性比男性能在出现的症状中更好的保护自己。而且，作为进一步的确认， Jacquemont 医生的发现与一个三年前发布的研究成果相符，研究发现 CNVs 在自闭症女孩中横跨多个 基因（也因此假设更具破坏性），比患自闭症男孩的多。 相反的观点认为如果女孩能更好的隐藏他们的症状，在被诊断的小组中，只有更极端女性案例会出现。如 果这是正确的，那么在女孩症候群中预期有更多程度的突变。然而， Jacquemont 医生和他的同事同样 也发现受损的 CNVs 遗传于母亲的可能性大于他或她的父亲。他们解释这进一步证明了女性保护机制。 自闭症症状使任何性别的人都不大愿意成为父母。如果母亲是孩子自闭症诱导基因的主要来源，因此建议 孩子们能少受到影响母体的影响。 即使没有这个，准确机制也说明男孩比女孩更易受到影响。在这个问题上，也有两个主要的理论。第一个 理论认为男性更敏感， 因为他们只有一个 X 染色体。这使对染色体的突变更易受影响，因为任何受损基 因都没有双胞胎来掩盖。认知障碍，X 染色体易损综合症，确实因为这个原因在男性中很常见。然而 Jacquemont 医生的研究发现 X 染色体突变的作用有限。这表明该差异的遗传基础是分布在整个基因组 的。另一种解释则是解剖学意义上的。它基于男性和女性大脑内部连接模式差异的脑成像研究。男性大脑比起 女性而言，有较强的本地连接，较弱的长范围连接。这与是否患有自闭症者大脑的不同相似。这表明男性 类型连接模式在某种程度上更加易受因此自闭症的其他认知障碍因素得破坏。然而为什么会这样，仍是未 解之谜。 译者：雷婧The best and worst states for small businessRed tape bluesSmall businesses fret less about taxes than over-regulation IAN TONER, an architect in Philadelphia, recently went to city offices for a permit to build a stoop for a client's home. The city, he learned, had just imposed new requirements:he would have to get maps from gas, electric, water and other utilities to ensure the stoop would not disturb their underground lines and then resubmit his application. A process he thought would take a day took more than two weeks. That's not all. Other new rules require that he prove that his builder has general liability, workers'compensation and car insurance, and has paid all his taxes. Four times a year he must set aside a half day to ensure he is paying the state's and city's myriad taxes correctly. Mr Toner doesn't question the need what galls him is the time and hassle involved in complying with them. “The information exists all over the place and the burden is on me not just to gather it but interpret it. I'm not going to leave here because of this, but they're all things that could turn a person off of coming here.” America's states and cities have traditionally tried to attract businesses by offering them tax breaks and other cash incentives. Yet there may be a more effective way, and one which puts no strain on stretched budgets: make life simpler. Thumbtack, a website that matches customers to businesses, and the Kauffman Foundation, a think-tank, asks thousands of small businesses annually about local requirements for hiring, regulations, zoning, licences, health insurance and training. They have enough data to compile (somewhat subjective) “business climate” grades for 38 states and 82 cities. One surprising finding is how little local tax rates matter. Nearly two-thirds of respondents say they pay their “fair share” of taxes, which the survey-takers reckon means they don't feel over- or undertaxed. But many complain about the difficulty of complying with complex regulations: this was a strong predictor of how small businesses rank their states. To be sure, low-tax states such as Texas generally score well, while high-tax states such as California and Illinois flunk their tests. This may be because the kind of politicians who like high taxes also like bossing people around. But not always. Minnesota, a high-tax state, earns a respectable “B” for business climate, partly because it is easy to start a business there. Washington and Florida, both low-tax states, earn a “C” and a “C+”. Entrepreneurs fault Washington's harsh zoning laws and gripe that in Florida new firms must jump through hoops like dolphins at SeaWorld. The lesson for politicians is: “no matter what else you do, make things easy,” says Jon Lieber of Thumbtack. “This may seem obvious but a lot of governments don't do it right. Don't require a plumber to spend two days at city hall pulling permits when he could be doing jobs.” Too often, state websites are confusing and bureaucrats unhelpful. Dennis Kessler, an accountant in New Jersey, says he usually can't get through on the telephone to the relevant department. When he does, the information is often misleading or incomplete. He recently spent 30 hours trying to help a client change its corporate status without getting a different federal taxidentification number―only to discover that this is impossible.Licensing rules are a headache. In theory, they protect the public from incompetence, which is useful if you are hiring a doctor. But increasingly they protect incumbents from competition―the requirement to have a licence raises an occupation's wages by 18%, according to Morris Kleiner and Alan Krueger, two economists. In the 1950s less than 5% of workers req now 35% do. Some make no sense. Celeste Kelly, a horse lover, began offering horse massage, a subject she had studied privately, in 2006; she charges $55 per session. In 2012 the Arizona State Veterinary Medical Examining Board ordered her to “cease and desist” or face heavy fines and possible criminal charges. According to the Institute for Justice (IJ), a libertarian law firm which is suing the board on her behalf, Arizona does not require vets to learn massage, and Ms Kelly m she simply can't charge for it unless she's a vet. “Veterinarians I know think it's ridiculous,” she complains. “It's their political arm that has crafted legislation to be self-protective.” State licensing regimes vary widely. Louisiana requires licences for 70% of low-wage occupations, according to IJ, including barber, bartender and cosmetologist. In Wyoming, it is a more modest 24%. In Hawaii, licences require an average of 724 days of expe in Pennsylvania, 113. Enforcement is uneven, too. Changes to regulations have little effect on economic growth in the short run―cyclical influences such as the state of the housing market or the fortunes of a particular industry (high-tech in California, oil in Texas) matter more. But in the long run, business-friendliness makes a difference: one study found that states that rank better on indices of taxes, costs and regulations enjoy stronger job growth, after filtering out the influence of industry composition and the weather. Globally, countries that rank higher in the World Bank's surveys of the ease of doing business grow faster. Lowering barriers to entry for new businesses gives consumers more choice and cheaper prices. A gourmet-food-truck fad began in Los Angeles with $2 Korean tacos in 2008, and has thrived because the city is flexible about where such trucks can park. By contrast, Chicago forbids food trucks from operating within 200 feet of a bricks-and-mortar restaurant, and requires them to have a GPS to ensure compliance, which makes life very hard for them in the downtown business district. Businesses lobby for lots of things they should not have: handouts from the taxpayer, handicaps imposed on their rivals. But it is hard to find fault in their plea for simpler rules, swifter bureaucratic decisions, government websites that a normal person can navigate and officials who actually answer the phone. Clearing away old rules is hard. Their benefits tend to be concentrated (eg, when they protect incumbents); their costs dispersed (slightly higher prices affect all consumers, but only a little). States and cities can, however, slow the pace at which new rules proliferate, for example by estimating their economic impact before enacting them. Last year Iowa's governor vetoed a bill that would have required licences for drug-abuse counsellors, and Arizona made life easier for firms operating in multiple cities with separate sales taxes by limiting them to one tax form and one audit. The difficulty is that many rules purport to protect the public: from shoddy services, dangerous products or even death. Even if the cost is high and the risk remote, no politician wants to be accused of compromising public safety. Last year Mike Pence, Indiana's Republican governor, vetoed the licensing of diabetes educators and anaesthesiologist assistants, on the grounds the new rules would raise barriers to business and require additional bureaucracy. Buta year later, he signed into law a modified version of the measure, minus the extra bureaucracy but otherwise much the same.小本生意的旺市与淡市 繁文缛节让人忧郁 小本生意担心监管过度问题多过税收 最近，费城建筑师伊恩? 托纳前往市政府办公室为其客户获得房屋门廊建设许可证。伊恩了解到，费城刚 刚颁布了新的要求：申请者得提交天然气、电气、水气等公司的地图，确保门廊不会影响地下线，然后重 新提交申请。他原本以为这个过程只需花费一天，而事实上却花了大概两个礼拜。 这还不是全部的。其他新的条例要求，申请者还要证明建筑工人享有责任保险、劳工补偿以及汽车保险， 并且全部交过税。一年四次，他得留出半天时间来确保他准确支付了州政府以及市政度各种繁杂的税。托 纳先生并不是在纠结这些条例和税收的必要性；让他觉得受到羞辱的是遵守背后所花费的时间与麻烦。 “信息随处可见，我所承受的压力不仅仅是去收集这些信息，更多的是去解释。我不打算因为这个就离开， 但是那些却是阻碍人们来此的力量。” 沿袭传统，美国的州和城市通过税收减免政策和其他的现金奖励措施来尽量吸引招商。但是，或许还有另 外一种更有效的方法，不对紧张的预算施压，即生活更简单。 美国一家本地服务网上交易市场―Thumbtack(图钉)，以及发挥智囊团作用的考夫曼基金会每年会向成 百上千小本生意打听情况，询问当地对于招聘、规章制度、分区制、健康保险以及上岗培训的一些要求。 他们有足够的数据对美国 38 个州以及 82 个城市编译“商业环境”（有点主观）。 令人吃惊的是，当地税收无关痛痒。近六成受访者称，他们支付问卷者认为的不高也不低的税收。但是许 多人抱怨遵循复杂法规的难处：这是一个很强烈地预兆，表明了小本生意如何去评价他们所在的州。 可以肯定的是，像德克萨斯州这样低税收的地方通常排名靠前，评价高；相比而言，想加州和伊利诺斯州 这样高税收的却未能博得民心。或许是因为喜欢高税收的政治家们很喜欢发号施令。但也有的特例，比如， 明尼苏达州税收高，却赢得了一个令人尊敬的“B”级商业环境等级；可能是因为这里创业很容易。像华盛 顿和佛罗里达这样低税收的，却分别得了一个“C”和一个“C+”。企业家把责任归咎于华盛顿苛刻的分区制， 还抱怨佛罗里达州的新公司就像海洋世界里海豚跳铁圈一样。 来自图钉的约翰? 烈博说，政治家得到的教训是：“不管你做了什么，简化它们。”他继续说，“这看起来显 而易见，但很多政府官员却无法做到。不要指望水管工会花两天的时间在市政厅请求许可证，特别是在他 们还可以做别的事的时候。” 州政府网站时常让人费解，而且官僚们常常无所用处。新泽西的会计丹尼斯认为，通常，他无法打通相关 部门的电话。当他打通的时候，回馈的信息往往是让人误解的或者不完整。最近，他花了 30 个小时帮助 一名客户在未获得不同的联邦纳税人识别号的情况下去改变法人地位，但最后他发现一切都是徒劳的。 许可证管理是一件很头痛的事。经济学家莫里斯和奥兰认为，理论上讲，这些制度保障了大众，特别是当 你雇佣了一名医生，它们可以避免无能医生。渐渐地，这些制度保护现任者不受竞争力的影响；即对执照 的要求使得工资上涨 18 个百分点。在 20 世纪 50 年代，不到 5%的工人需要证明，现在增加到 35%。 一些制度纯属无稽之谈。骑马爱好者克莱斯特? 凯里开始提供为马按摩的服务，这项服务是她于 2006 年 个人研究的；按摩一次 55 美元。2012 年，亚利桑那州兽医医学研究委员会要求凯里停止这项服务，否 则将面临高价罚款以及牢狱之灾。据司法部部门，一家持自由论的律师事务所帮助凯里控告该委员会，亚 利桑那州并没有要求兽医要学按摩，而且凯里小姐也可能会免费提供该服务；除非她是兽医，不然她不能 收费。凯里抱怨道，“我所认识的兽医觉得这很荒唐。这是他们获得自保的政治手段。” 许可证体制变化莫测。依据司法部门，路易斯安那州要求包括理发师、酒保以及美容师在内的占 70%的 低收入职业持有许可证明。在怀俄明州，该比例较少，为 24%。在夏威夷州，执照获得的资格要求是工 作经历加教育经历 724 天；在宾夕法尼亚州，113 天。执行过程更是入目不堪。 从短期看，条规的变化对经济增长无影响，而周期性的影响因素比如房地产市场的状态或者一个特定行业 的财富积累（加州的高科技，德克萨斯州的石油），却更重要。但是，从长期看，商业友好型却有不同： 一项研究发现，排除行业类别组成与天气因素影响，税收、成本和监管指数排名较前的州享有更强的就业 增长。全球范围内，在世界银行一项关于做生意的方便性的调查中，排名更靠前的过家发展更快。 降低创业的门槛让消费者享有更多的选择，更实惠的价格。一股美食车潮因 2 美元的韩国烤肉于 2008 年在洛杉矶流行开来，这是因为洛杉矶这座城市随处可适应美食车。相比而言，芝加哥却禁止快餐车停留 在实体餐厅的 200 英尺范围内，还要求他们配有 GPS 定位以确保他们遵守了上述条例，而这一切让市中 心商业区的人们生活艰难。 企业为了许多不属于他们的东西四处游说：纳税人的救济金，给对手造成的障碍。然而，我们很难去指责 他们想要简单条例、更迅速的官僚决策、普通人可以使用的政府网站以及可以接通电话的官员。 废除老规矩是很难的。老规矩的受益者们往往很集中（当要保护现任者的时候）；所需成本分散（稍高的 价钱会影响所有的消费者）。然而，州政府以及市政府却可以放慢新规则的制定速度，例如，在制定之前 可以先评估其经济影响。去年爱荷华州的官员投票通过一项法案，其内容要求吸毒人员的顾问持有执照； 亚利桑那州放宽对公司的要求，通过限制公司只有一个税种和一种审计，允许其在多个城市支付单独的销 售税。 许多条例制定出来是为了保护民众免受赝品、危险的产品以及死亡的威胁，而这恰恰也是难点。即使成本 高，危险遥不可及，没有一个政客愿意因为危害公共安全而被起诉。去年，印第安纳州共和党州长麦克? 彭斯投票糖尿病教育者以及麻醉学者助理的许可证，理由是新的法规会给商业活动造成困难，并会增 加额外的官员。但是一年以后，他签署了一份修改版的法案，减少多余的官僚机构，其他方面则一样。High streetsStrange townWhy some streets in London stay resolutely the same KENTISH TOWN ROAD is a humdrum high street in north London. It contains pawnbrokers, pound shops, hairdressers and some long-in-the-tooth hardware stores. Unlike Camden Town to the south, full of bars and tattoo parlours, or Hampstead to the west, with its bistros and boutique clothing shops, little seems to have changed on the street for the past three decades. “It's never quite got going,” admits Gary McLaren, a local bookseller. Yet the lack of change is odd―and hints at some of the strangeness of London. Kentish Town has excellent transport links to central London, and plenty of residents prepared to pay good money for that. Off the high street stretch rows of pretty Victorian terraced houses, which sell for as much as 2m ($3m) apiece. Between 2007 and 2014 property prices in the postcode area surrounding the main Tube and railway station more than doubled. An influx of French parents, drawn by a school that opened in 2011, is pushing prices even higher. Yet Kentish Town's shops and cafes are almost invariably untrendy and in some cases mouldering. A hair salon, a butcher and a sportswear shop have each been owned by the same men for more than a quarter of a century. Why? One explanation is that, in common with other parts of London, Kentish Town has lots of social housing as well as costly Victorian terraces. Camden Council, the local authority, is building even more in the borough. This helps cheaper shops survive, suggests Tony Travers of the London School of Economics: council tenants are less likely to drive and so rely more on local outlets. And the sheer volume of car and lorry traffic on the busy high street, which is a main road into the city, might deter shoppers from visiting and swanky businesses from setting up in the area. Demography plays a part, too. Fully 72% of the population of Kentish Town is white, including a good number of Irish residents―higher than the proportion in London as a whole, at 60%. Unlike the high streets around Peckham and Brixton in south London, which cater for African shoppers who may travel far to reach them, few specialist shops draw people to Kentish Town. “We're not a destination high street,” sighs one local trader. NIMBYs have not always helped. Lots of civic groups are active in the area, campaigning against late licences and the like, says Dan Carrier of the