双语新闻:股票：现在不买 更待何时_中大网校
>> <a href="/catti/fudao/shuangyu/"
双语新闻:股票：现在不买 更待何时
发表时间：日10:46 来源：中大网校
点击关注微信：
二级口译综合能力考点解析班
二级口译实务—基础技能训练精讲班
二级口译实务—实操技能训练强化班
二级口译实务—历年真题解析班
二级笔译综合能力考点解析班
二级笔译实务—基础技能训练精讲班
二级笔译实务—历年真题解析班
三级口译综合能力考点解析班
三级口译实务—基础技能训练精讲班
三级口译实务—实操技能训练强化班
三级口译实务—历年真题解析班
三级笔译综合能力考点解析班
三级笔译实务—基础技能训练精讲班
三级笔译实务—历年真题解析班
Some of the country’s most famous investors, including Warren Buffett and John Bogle, have started to make the case that it’s time to dive back into the stock market. They are usually careful to add that they don’t know what stocks will do in the short term. Yet their basic message is clear enough: stocks are now cheap, irrational fears have been driving the market down lately, and people who buy today will be glad that they did. After a day like Tuesday, when the market rose 11 percent, it’s easy to see the merits of the argument. But there is another argument that deserves more attention than it has gotten so far. It’s the bearish argument that is based neither on fears that the country may be sliding into another depression nor on gut-level worries about the unknown. It is based on numbers and history, and it has at least as much claim on reason as the bullish argument does. It goes something like this: Stocks are truly cheap only relative to their values over the last 20 years, a period that will go down as one of the great bubbles in history. If you take a longer view, you see that the ratio of stock prices to corporate earnings is only slightly below its long-term average. And in past economic crises — during the 1930s and 1970s — stocks fell well below their long-run average before they turned around. To make matters worse, corporate earnings have now started to plunge, too. Assuming that they keep dropping, stocks would also need to fall to keep the price-earnings ratio at its current level. As stocks were soaring on Tuesday afternoon, I called James Melcher to hear a dose of fact-based bearishness. Mr. Melcher is president of Balestra Capital, a hedge fund in New York, who wrote an essay for his clients two years ago that predicted the broad outlines of the financial crisis (and then arranged Balestra’s portfolio accordingly). Like the bulls, he said that no one could know what the market would do in the short term. “But to think stocks are cheap now,” he added, “is not rational.” He went on: “In the last 20 years — and particularly in the last six or seven — you had the most massive creation of liquidity the world has ever known.” Consumers went ever deeper into debt, thanks to loose lending standards, and a shadow banking system, made up of hedge funds and investment banks, allowed Wall Street to do the same. All that debt lifted economic growth and stock returns. “It was a nice party,” Mr. Melcher said. “The problem is that all the bills are coming due at the same time.” He thinks stocks could easily fall an additional 20 percent and maybe 35 percent before hitting bottom. So who’s right — the bears or the bulls? The smartest people in both camps, like Mr. Melcher, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Bogle, have a healthy dose of humility about their own conclusions. And when you dig into their arguments, you find that they’re not quite as different as they first sound. But they are different, and it’s worth taking a minute to consider the numbers. There are any number of ways to measure the valuation of the stock market. Some examine prices relative to earnings, others are based on cash flow, a company’s underlying assets or the total value of the market. But they tell a pretty consistent story right now. Stocks, which were fabulously expensive for much of the 1990s and this decade, no longer are. My favorite measure is the one recommended by Benjamin Graham and David L. Dodd, in their classic 1934 textbook, “Security Analysis.” They urged investors to use a price-to-earnings ratio — stock prices divided by average annual corporate earnings — based on at least five years of earnings and, ideally, closer to 10. Corporate profits may rise or fall in any given year, but a share of stock is a claim on a company’s long-term earnings and should be evaluated as such. (Why not use a forecast of future earnings? Because they tend toward the fictional, as we’re now seeing once again.) The 10-year price-to-earnings ratio tells an incredibly consistent story over the last century. It has averaged about 16 over that time. There have been long periods when it stayed above 16 and even shot above 20, like the 1920s, 1960s and recent years. As recently as last October, when other measures suggested the market was reasonably valued, the Graham-Dodd version of the ratio was a disturbing 27. But periods in which the ratio has jumped above 20 have always been followed by steep declines and at least a decade of poor returns. By 1932, the ratio had fallen to 6. In 1982, it was only 7. Then, of course, the market began to self-correct in the other direction, and stocks took off. After Tuesday’s big rally, the ratio was just a shade below 16, or almost equal to its long-run average. This is a little difficult to swallow, I realize. Stocks are down 40 percent since last October, and every experience from the last 25 years suggests they now have to bounce back. But that’s precisely the problem. Since the 1980s, stocks have always bounced back from a loss, usually reaching a high in relatively short order. As a result, the market became enormously overvalued. As Robert Shiller, the economist who specializes in bubbles, points out, human beings tend to put too much weight on recent experiences. We think the market snapbacks of 1987 and the current decade are more meaningful and more predictive than the long slumps of the 1930s, 1940s and 1970s. Of course, anyone who made the same assumption in 1930 or 1975 — this just has to turn around soon — would have had to wait years and years until the investment paid off. Now, Mr. Buffett, Mr. Bogle and their fellow bulls know all this history, and they’re still bullish. (Though I’d be more bullish, too, if I could get the favorable terms that Mr. Buffett did. In exchange for his money and his good name, Goldman Sachs and General Electric each guaranteed him an annual return of at least 10 percent.) So on Tuesday afternoon, I also called Mr. Bogle, the legendary founder of the Vanguard Group, the investment firm whose low-cost index funds have made a lot for a lot of people. He, too, prefers the 10-year price-to-earnings ratio, he said, but he didn’t think that it necessarily had to fall to the same bargain-basement levels it reached in the 1930s and 1970s. You can certainly see why that would be the case. Investors are well aware that the market fell to irrationally low levels during past crises, and they may not allow it to become so cheap this time around. Mr. Bogle also thinks that corporate profits will rebound nicely within a couple of years and likes the fact that interest rates are low. Low rates have often — though not always — accompanied bull markets. But it was his last argument that I think is the main one for most investors to focus on. “I’m not looking for a great bull market,” he said. There are some reasons to be optimistic about stocks, he said, “and I also look at the alternative.” And, really, how attractive are the alternatives? Savings accounts and money market funds will struggle to keep pace with inflation. Bonds may, as well. Stocks, on the other hand, are paying an average dividend of about 3 percent, which is better than the interest on many savings accounts, and stocks are also almost certain to rise over the next couple of decades. If that is your time frame — decades, rather than months or years — this will probably turn out to be a perfectly good buying opportunity. In the shorter term, though, it’s a much tougher call, and it involves a lot more risk.
（责任编辑：）
共2页,当前第1页&&&&&&22,594被浏览4,908,765分享邀请回答6.1K499 条评论分享收藏感谢收起store.steampowered.com/app/252210/一款玩起来感觉井井有条的传统的地牢冒险游戏，复古但是非常正统-----Escape Goat（逃脱山羊）逃脱山羊的初代，难度极大的烧脑平台动作游戏-----Nuclear Throne（废土之王）Roguelike 加爽快的上帝视角动作射击，玩儿到手软-----The Stanley Parable（史丹利的寓言）不走寻常路的颠覆性游戏-----Electronic Super Joy（电子超快感）超级爽快的动作游戏，配乐、难度均让人叹为观止-----Spelunky（洞穴冒险）最著名的 Roguelike 平台动作游戏之一，可玩性极强，可以重复玩下去-----Papers, Please（入境管理处）题材独特的独立游戏经典之一-----Hammerwatch（铁锤守卫）一个幻想的像素艺术环境，复古的像素风，高难度，杰作！-----Gone Home（回家）经典的叙事，充满人情味的游戏-----Gunpoint（枪口）独特的创意配上爵士乐，养眼的画面和大量的谜题，整个游戏就像一部黑色电影一样-----Rogue Legacy（盗贼遗产）Roguelike 类型中的经典之作，充满新意又秉承传统-----Don't Starve（别饿死）可以说是最著名的生存游戏之一了，独立游戏瑰宝-----Monaco: What's Yours Is Mine（摩纳哥：你的就是我的）潜入式的游戏方式以及紧凑的故事结构会让你不知疲倦-----FEZ2D／3D 视角创新变化的经典动作解谜游戏-----Evoland（进化之地）通过游戏讲述 RPG 游戏的进化史，新颖而精彩！-----Antichamber（环绕走廊）烧脑佳作，专门用来挑战智商所用-----The Bridge（桥）非常烧脑的解谜游戏，画面风格也很独特-----Thomas Was Alone（托马斯是孤独的）抽象的游戏，极简的表现，有着丰富的感受-----Mark of the Ninja（忍者印记）二维潜入类游戏的杰作，各个方面均无懈可击-----Hotline Miami（迈阿密热线）史上最血腥暴力的独立游戏之一-----Deadlight（死光）末世的描绘栩栩如生，剪影的风格独树一帜-----To the Moon（去月球）最感人的剧情，最动听的 OST，一款独特的 RPG-----FTL: Faster Than Light（FTL：超越光速）绝佳口碑的太空 Roguelike 游戏，在茫茫宇宙中进行未知的探险-----Torchlight II（火炬之光 II）屡获殊荣的动作 RPG，制作精良-----Indie Game: The Movie（独立游戏大电影）独立游戏爱好者必看的影片-----Superbrothers: Sword & Sworcery EP（超级兄弟：剑与巫术 EP）就冲原声音轨也值得推荐，更别提游戏的画面和氛围了-----Cave Story+（洞窟传说）几乎被认为是独立游戏的开山鼻祖，五年开发时间，一人完成-----The Binding of Isaac（以撒的结合）百玩不厌的动作游戏，灵活的运用与搭配将会让玩家收获意外的惊喜-----Gemini Rue（双子座行动）反乌托邦的冒险游戏佳作，黑色风格让人印象深刻-----LIMBO（地狱边境）男孩进入了地狱边境寻找姐姐，氛围极佳-----Bastion（堡垒）拥有全新叙述方式的动作角色扮演游戏，画面精美，战斗给力！-----Terraria（泰拉瑞亚）经典的二维沙盒游戏，多人玩更是乐趣无穷-----Shank（闪克）动作犀利、痛快，充满了街机般的游戏乐趣-----Super Meat Boy（超级食肉男孩）经典的高难度动作游戏-----Windosill（火车头冒险记）如果告诉你，纪念碑谷的开发人员是受了它的启发，你敢不买么-----Machinarium（机械迷城）经典的解谜之作，画面细腻达到极致-----Braid（时空幻境）控制时间，绝妙创意的独立游戏-----World of Goo（粘粘世界）基于物理并获得多项大奖的益智／建筑游戏-----Aquaria（安琪拉之歌）经典的水下世界动作冒险游戏-----Garry's Mod（盖瑞的模组）可以制造出任何东西来的物理沙盒游戏--------------------------------------------------------------------------------下面是实时更新的地址：该页面包括折扣等情况的实时数据，希望对您会有所帮助。同时也欢迎访问：
这些页面都在保持持续更新。2.6K129 条评论分享收藏感谢收起合肥零下了！砂之船女装羽绒服、大衣2折起 现在不买更待何时
折扣商场：折扣时间：日至日 折扣力度：1-3折所属商圈：其他折扣地址：合肥砂之船奥莱红袖专柜
免责声明：此信息内容仅供参考，详情请咨询相关商户或到店咨询。
今天一看天气预报，合肥零下了，吓得小编赶紧把羽绒服羊毛围巾都拿出来了，把自己裹得像个粽子一样!听说你还没有好看的羽绒服和大衣，这怎么可以!合肥砂之船奥莱红袖专柜全场2-5折(特例品不参加)，小编都还想再剁手一件！
羽绒服系列：
砂之船奥莱红袖全场2-5折，羽绒服奥莱价：1499元
砂之船奥莱红袖全场2-5折，羽绒服奥莱价：1199元
砂之船奥莱红袖全场2-5折，羽绒服奥莱价：1199元
砂之船奥莱红袖全场2-5折，羽绒服奥莱价：999元
砂之船奥莱红袖全场2-5折，羽绒服奥莱价：650元
大衣系列：
砂之船奥莱红袖全场2-5折，大衣奥莱价：849元
砂之船奥莱红袖全场2-5折，大衣奥莱价：699元
砂之船奥莱红袖全场2-5折，大衣奥莱价：699元
砂之船奥莱红袖全场2-5折，大衣奥莱价：280元
砂之船奥莱红袖全场2-5折，大衣奥莱价：450元
那件蓝色的大衣真的是2折，还有不少5折款，有好几款小编都比较喜欢，这个周末准备去剁手一件，你喜欢哪一件？周末一起约砂之船奥莱红袖专柜啊！可以带上家人一起，砂之船奥莱常年3-7折，基本上所有专柜都有活动，购买的很划算！
购物频道简介 万家热线旗下设有全城、合肥潮店、实用穿搭、超级特卖场等众多栏目，为您精选合肥最值得买的好物，网罗合肥最新、最全的/、导购信息，更有惊喜福利和特色活动不定期放送。万家会让你变成一个会穿会买还会省的时（bai）尚（jia）先（niang）锋（men）。 如果你身边有独特的、有意思的、有故事的、有噱头的店铺，欢迎告诉我们，一经采用，便会送上惊喜大礼哟！联系电话：5 QQ群：合肥圈儿：
编辑：蔡云
网友意见：
万家购物频道官方微信
微信号：wjgw2017
微信扫一扫，关注公众号
万家热线超级特卖场
微信号：关注小程序剁手党的福音
微信扫一扫，关注公众号
安徽资讯APP
扫一扫，安徽尽在您手中
万家热线聚好玩
微信扫一扫，使用小程序
700万合肥人的欢乐大PARTY
1333人关注
1018人关注
1416人关注
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
2018 新的一年到了，百大鼓楼银座为各位大小朋友准备 ...
我们脚下的这片土地,经历了无数个春花秋月,我们的文化...
小时候觉得妈妈就是最厉害的厨师
长大后觉得做菜也是...
对于时尚的妹子来说，出游一方面是为了放松心情，但还有重要的一点就是要美...
今日万家热线
扫描关注今日万家热线微信公共号
短信快捷登录
合作账号登录
验证即登录，未注册将自动创建万家账号
发送验证码我是销售代理机构
吉屋网月覆盖3000万购房人群，中文房产网站排名第4。
吉屋网月覆盖3000万购房人群，当前合作新盘超过2000个。
我是公寓运营商
发布房源，更快找到租客。
吉屋网月覆盖3000万购房人群，更快更准推广合作业务。
您的位置：
国创光谷上城 首付比例将至20% 现在不买更待何时
来源：搜房网 &&发布时间：
2月2日下午，央行、银监会发布新政：在不实施“限购”措施的城市，居民家庭头次购买的商业性个人，原则上较低首付款比例为25%，各地可向下浮动5个百分点。对拥有1套住房且相应未结清的居民家庭，为改善居住条件再次申请商业性个人住房贷款购买普通住房，较低首付款比例调整为不低于30%。较低可降至20%，这是支持合理住房消费的利好。去年以来，国家调整了首付比例、、限购、户籍等众多政策，引导房产消费。同时，国家层面支持农民工进城买房，鼓励人才购房政策，归根结底就是国家利用政策途径刺激房产消费。根据往常组合拳的打法来看，还可能进一步松动，接连降准降息将有机会重现，将有一大波利好政策促进楼市的发展！所以，现在就是购房的较好时机。光谷上城四重惠助你轻松买好房国创o光谷上城76-124㎡地铁口三房、164㎡瞰湖空墅现钜惠来袭，可享首付1成起，钜惠总价立减25000元。如果这还不够，国创o光谷上城再加一重优惠，凡认购成功即可将20000元礼包带回家。此外，认购成功立刻奉上全套装修方案，为您消除因装修设计带来的烦恼，给您的奋斗路保驾护航。 光谷上城价值标杆 潜力无限助梦放飞融汇众多优势价值于一身，地铁11号线上盖，与地铁2号线延长线、BRT快线、城际铁路、公交、城市快速通道共同组成全方位的立体交通网络，快速畅达三镇；依托周边6所中小学与3所高校，营造出很好的人文居住氛围；项目内部生态园林与近旁的胜利水库带来绿色生态生活，缔造光谷东居住标杆！项目地址：光谷高新大道与教育中路交汇处（光谷九小对面）到场路线：乘坐913/786/301到高新大道教育中路站，步行至光谷九小对面即可。
7×24小时热文榜
你可以按区域查找武汉新房、二手房，也可以按区域查询武汉房价。同时，你买房 过程中遇到的很多问题都可以在这里得到解答。
区域二手房
Copyright&(C)&2017& 深圳市吉屋科技股份有限公司 ALL Rights Reserved
最近联系人
查看消息记录
按Ctrl+Enter发送夏天的衣服现在不买更待何时？夏天的衣服现在不买更待何时？奔赴天百家号关注我是我最大的动力！- 优衣库 -基础款T恤不过今年的男装T恤好看的比较多女装短裤很好穿也适合上班穿，长度刚好不过我买的时候是限时特惠只要99哦，所以说像优衣库这种品牌要多逛，不知道什么时候就出了一个很低的价格。hm像这种快时尚品牌，更应该多去店里逛逛一件百搭的衬衣背心，大减价的时候只要50前几天在hm还看见了这件在被大减价，才70不过是xs号的就放弃了，这件真的是火得不得了。更多买买买资讯就快来关注我呀！本文仅代表作者观点，不代表百度立场。系作者授权百家号发表，未经许可不得转载。奔赴天百家号最近更新：简介:精彩不容错过，欢迎关注每天来看哦作者最新文章相关文章