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《幸福帽》[瑞典]海尔堡-v1
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《幸福帽》[瑞典]海尔堡-v1
关注微信公众号厉害了！瑞典首相带队到浙江参观了这家企业
新蓝网·浙江网络广播电视台
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核心提示：今天（28日）中午，瑞典首相斯特凡·勒文一行到访浙江吉利控股集团，瑞典哥德堡市长安·索菲·海尔曼松女士、瑞典驻华大使林戴安女士等随行参观，吉利控股集团董事长李书福、总裁安聪慧等陪同参观。
新蓝网-中国蓝新闻客户端6月28日讯（浙江之声记者李振阳）今天（28日）中午，瑞典首相斯特凡·勒文一行到访浙江吉利控股集团，瑞典哥德堡市长安·索菲·海尔曼松女士、瑞典驻华大使林戴安女士等随行参观，吉利控股集团董事长李书福、总裁安聪慧等陪同参观。瑞典哥德堡市与浙江吉利控股集团完成了在哥德堡筹建吉利欧洲创新中心的合作签约。此次签约的创新中心紧邻欧洲目前最先进的科研集群之一：瑞典西部的林德霍尔姆科技园，这将有助于吉利汽车及时掌握和融汇前端科技力量，加快创新发展。该项目也是截至目前，吉利控股集团在欧洲大陆的单体设施最大投资。建成后的创新中心面积约70,000-80,000平米，按照高艺术水准、高环保标准建造，将是瑞典同类公共设施中首屈一指的建筑群，主动安全、自动驾驶、互联互通等领域将成为其研究重点。按照规划，该中心将容纳吉利欧洲研发中心（CEVT），动力系统研发中心，吉利设计造型中心哥德堡工作室，领克欧洲销售和市场团队等。瑞典首相斯特凡·勒文斯特凡·勒文首相表示：“作为中国领先的汽车品牌，吉利在瑞典的投资有力拉动了瑞典的经济发展，提供了大量的就业机会。吉利控股集团收购沃尔沃之后，沃尔沃实现了有目共睹的发展并带动了瑞典的出口，吉利与沃尔沃的协同发展，是中瑞友谊的典范。瑞典是欧洲最具创新能力的国家，我们期待着通过与吉利的密切合作，进一步推动合作共赢和创新发展。”浙江吉利控股集团董事长李书福表示：“非常感谢瑞典政府长期以来对吉利控股集团的支持，这坚定了我们在吉利欧洲创新中心进行长期投资的决心。在过去几年里，CEVT在哥德堡开发最先进的模块架构和未来技术，吉利和沃尔沃形成了巨大的协同效应，实现了共同发展。未来，我们希望依托哥德堡的杰出的创新能力和源源不断的人才输出，将吉利创新中心打造为欧洲最先进的创新中心之一。”据了解，吉利控股集团于2010年与瑞典沃尔沃汽车成功“牵手”后，与哥德堡及瑞典开展了紧密协作。截止去年，沃尔沃汽车已实现经营利润110亿瑞典克朗，全球销量超过53万辆，创历史新高。2013年，吉利聚集了欧洲汽车行业的优秀人才，在瑞典哥德堡成立了全新的吉利汽车欧洲研发中心（CEVT），历时3年多，打造了全新CMA基础模块架构，代表了欧洲先进的研发理念和国际前沿技术。
来源：浙江之声编辑：王鑫当前位置： >>
王轶群老师八类阅读A总结经济学人财经2月
AIG 美国国际集团 America’s Improved Giant 美国巨人又长高了 The insurer has done a good job of rehabilitating itself. Can it stand on its own feet? 保险公司恢复元气的工作做得还不错。它能靠自己站起来吗？ Feb 2nd 2013 | NEW YORK |From the print editionAMERICANS are often asked by politicians if they are better off now than they were four years ago. Anyone involved with American International Group (AIG), an insurance company felled by the financial crisis, can safely answer “yes” to that question. In just four years it has freed itself from a $182 billion bail- gone from being publicly owned back to the private sector (the Treasury sold the last of its stake in December); and turned itself into a leaner, simpler business. Now that it has successfully shaken off government ownership, AIG’s next task is to prove its worth as a stand-alone, listed company. 政客们常常这样问美国民众：相比四年前，现在的生活是不是更好了？任何参与 到美国国际集团（AIG，曾于 2008 年金融危机严重受挫的一家保险公司）活动 中的人，这个时候都能挺起胸膛回答“是” 。公司用了整整四年来摆脱 1820 亿 美元的救助款；不再由大众控股重回私人手中（12 月财政部卖掉了手中最后一 支 AIG 股） ；自身业务也发生变化：更精简、更简易。既然 AIG 摆脱了政府这样[键入文字]一个所有者，那么下一个任务就是要以独立上市公司的身份来为自己正名。 That AIG is around at all is remarkable. By piling into what would emerge as the most rotten part of the financial system (insuring investors against losses on securities linked to American subprime mortgages) during the credit bubble, it ended up owing billions of dollars to those holding the other side of its bets. Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve’s chairman, famously derided AIG as a hedge -fund attached to a large and stable insurance company. AIG 所取成就可以用鹤立鸡群来形容。信贷泡沫期间，AIG 闯入金融系统中最腐 朽不堪的行业――防止投资者在美国次贷环境下受损失。 最终 AIG 竟然得到几十 亿美金，这些钱都来自买有 AIG 保险业务股票的股民。美联储主席本?伯南克曾 公开嘲笑 AIG 就是背靠着一个庞大、稳定的保险公司的一支对冲基金。 Today’s AIG is different. The buccaneering financial-products unit, whose need for collateral caused the government to intervene in September 2008, is all but shuttered. Many of AIG’s prized units have been sold to help finance its rescue, notably Alico and AIA, both non-US life-insurance businesses with bright prospects. An aircraft-leasing arm is in the process of being flogged. 今天的 AIG 大有不同。 掠夺式的金融产品部门， 其对于附属品的需求曾引得政府 2008 年 9 月介入，而现在差不多关停了。为了出资自我救赎，AIG 卖掉了许多 有价值的部门，最出名的就是美国人寿保险和美国友邦保险，二者都经营非美国 本土的人寿保险业务而且前景光明。出售飞机租赁部门也在洽谈中。 The transition back to private ownership has been pretty smooth. Much of the credit for the transformation falls to Bob Benmosche, a for mer boss of MetLife, an insurance rival, who was pulled out of a retirement spent cultivating grapes in Croatia to take the reins in August 2009. Known for his blunt, speak-your-mind approach (a month into the job, he said he was avoiding “those crazies do wn in Washington”), he has helped turn a demoralised group with a radioactive brand into a company with a renewed sense of self. 重回私人掌控的过程异常顺利。 转换过程大部分信贷任务落在竞争对手美国大都 会人寿保险公司的前任老板鲍勃?本默切肩上。2009 年 8 月，AIG 将还在克罗地 亚享受种葡萄退休生活的鲍勃请出山。 “口直心快” 以 出名的鲍勃（接手一个月， 他表示就一直在避免“华盛顿那些蠢货情绪低落”，他帮助士气低落、附带着一 ） 个放射性品牌的小组重塑自我意识并且组建公司。 The happy ending to this corporate fairy tale is still some years away, however. What remains of AIG is hardly a world-beating company. Return on equity, at 5%, is just about the lowest of its American peers. Margins are lousy at both the general-insurance division (known as property-casualty, which insures homes, cars and the like) and the life-insurance bit (which offers bank-like savings[键入文字]products). 不过，公司童话般的快乐结局是很久以前的事了。AIG 当务之急要解决的是拯救 跌出世界一流团队的公司。股本收益率在 5%，几乎是全行业最低水平。无论是 一般性保险（一般为财险，包括房屋险、车险，等等类似险种） ，还是人寿险（提 供类似于银行储蓄利息） ，盈利情况都是一塌糊涂。Mr Benmosche claims AIG now has the right structure and positioning to thrive. “We had to cut some branches off the tree, but the tree is still there and it’s a big trunk,” he says. Even after the cuts, AIG has some 62,000 staff (down from 116,000) in 90 countries. Despite the wild swings of the recent past, it is still America’s largest insurer by market capitalisation (see chart). 本默切宣布 AIG 如今结构良好、定位准确，已经做好蓬勃发展的准备。 “我们不 得不像园丁一样剪掉一些枝丫，但是树还在，树干仍然粗壮。 ”他说道。即使精 简裁员之后，AIG 仍在 90 多个国家有 6.2 万名员工（之前为 11.6 万） 。抛开近 几年公司剧烈震动不谈，就市值而言（见图表）AIG 仍是美国最大的保险公司。 With less management time spent fire-fighting and negotiating with politicians, more attention is being lavished on the nuts and bolts of running each unit. The goal is to reach a 10% return on equity by 2015, thus matching its rivals. Mr Benmosche relishes detailing the humdrum measures AIG is taking to get there:[键入文字]consolidating data centres to cut costs, tweaking the product mix towards more profitable lines, offering more tailored pricing by crunching customer data more intelligently. This is a world away from dabbling in credit derivatives, he implies. 没有把太多管理时间花在同政客斗嘴和协条上面， 而是集中精力做好每个部门细 节之处。公司目标是在 2015 年时资本回报率可达到 10%，因此也就是同竞争对 手水平相当。 本默切津津有味地细化谈及 AIG 正在向目标前进的方法： 整合数据 中心以降低成本，调整产品结构向利润更大的方向发展，通过更智能地处理客户 数据信息从而提出更具针对性的价格。他暗示说，这是一个远离信贷衍生品的世 界。 Both sides of AIG’s business need nourishing. The general-insurance arm currently pays out slightly more in claims than it receives in premiums, once costs are factored in. Profits come from investing the cash float it holds to pay out claims as they arise, which is not the most lucrative business when interest rates (and thus returns) are at rock bottom. Chronic underinvestment in IT systems has left it trailing rivals―stories abound of AIG units bidding against each other for contracts. Bad luck hasn’t helped. Hurricane Sandy will have dented fourth-quarter profits to the tune of $2 billion before tax, the most of any American insurer (it also flooded AIG’s Wall Street offices). AIG 两方面业务都需要投资。成本一旦考虑进来，那么一般性保险部分近期索赔 支出便会稍大于其保险费收入数额。利润来源于投资浮存资金，公司用这笔资金 支付需要理赔的保险金。当利率（当然还有回报率）跌落谷底时，保险业也就称 不上是最有利可图的行业了。 信息技术领域长期投资不足导致步了对手后尘―― AIG 各部门之间为同一份合同竞标的报道比比皆是。坏运气理应不会帮忙。飓风 桑迪破坏了第四个季度的税前总额可达 20 亿美元的利润――利润超过美国所有 的保险公司（桑迪还淹了 AIG 在华尔街的办事处） 。 The good news is that insurance prices in America are rising, and that AIG’s higher-margin international franchise (despite asset disposals, half of the firm’s general-insurance sales are made abroad) is growing fast. More controversially, the company is also cutting reinsurance coverage, which is how insurers offload their own risks. This will juice margins but could lead to AIG shouldering larger one-off losses. 好消息是美国投保费用在上升， 而且 AIG 国际上获利颇丰得特许经销店 （尽管出 让资产，但是公司一般性保险业务有一半是在国外实现的）也在快速发展。更具 争议的是公司砍掉了再保险业务范围，这也是现在保险公司规避风险的一般做 法。虽然可以挤出一些利润来，但是也会让 AIG 承受更多的永久性损失。 The impact of low interest rates is even greater for its life-insurance and retirement-planning business, which makes up the other half of the group’s earnings. Many of its life products offer customers fixed returns on premiums paid.[键入文字]AIG has limited flexibility to lower the rates it extended in frothier times. In common with rivals, it is now changing its focus towards products which are less sensitive to interest rates. But lower returns and a still-soft economy also has the effect of dampening interest from consumers, who appear keener to squirrel away money into savings products when they feel rich. Profits in this area of the business are expected to be flat for the foreseeable future. 低利润率之于人寿保险和退休计划业务影响更大了， 同理填补了其他部门利润收 益。许多人寿部门推出产品可以给予客户固定保险金回报。AIG 限制降低在泡沫 时期延伸后利率的灵活度。与竞争对手相同的是，公司现在将自身的关注点转向 对利率并不敏感的产品。 但是更低的回报和仍显疲态的经济会产生影响抑制消费 者利益，而此时消费者会把钱转而投向他们认为能获利的储蓄产品。在未来可以 预见情况下，这方面业务利润仍将不景气。 Bits of AIG continue to baffle outsiders. It still holds $158 billion of credit derivatives on its books, a small slice of its pre-crisis $1.8 trillion portfolio but still nearly three times its market capitalisation. The firm also holds more sub-investment-grade securities on its balance-sheet than any of its life-insurance rivals, according to J.P. Morgan. Much of this exposure comes from mortgage-backed securities taken over by the government during the crisis and subsequently repurchased by AIG. AIG 一些产品持续让外行人迷惑不解。账目上看来它仍然握有 1580 亿美元的信 用衍生品， 和一小组金融危机前且仍然是几乎三倍于其市值 1.8 万亿美元组合产 品。而且据 JP 摩根大通称，AIG 公司比任何一家竞争对手在各自的资产负债表 上都更多的控有次投资级债券。 大部分内幕曝光是因为金融危机时期政府买入抵 押贷款支持证券，随后由 AIG 买回。 “We have a detailed understanding of these assets,” says Mr Benmosche. Maybe so. His most obvious successor (Mr Benmosche is 68 years old and was diagnosed in 2010 with an unspecified cancer) is Peter Hancock, who now heads the general-insurance division but is famed in financial circles for having pioneered credit derivatives at J.P. Morgan two decades ago. But however well AIG understands itself, many analysts quietly admit that parts of the group’s finances are still hazy to them. “对于这些资产我们都十分了解， ”本默切说。或许就像他说的一样吧。本默切 头号继承人（本默切先生今年 68 岁，2002 年诊断出患有新型癌症）是彼得?汉 考克。彼得现在是一般性保险业务领域的领头人；20 年前金融危机时期在 JP 摩 根大通，他采用金融衍生品而出名。不过，无论 AIG 对自身了解得如何透彻，许 多分析家私底下都认为 AIG 对于部分金融业务还是进行着模糊化处理。 Investors are nonetheless bullish on the shares. That is partly because they trade at just over half AIG’s book value, whereas other insurers are trading closer to or[键入文字]above book value. Investors like the regular recent payouts of excess cash to shareholders, although the firm’s focus is now expected to be on paying down debt to maintain its A- credit rating. Huge accounting losses during the crisis will lower AIG’s tax bill for the next few years, bolstering profits. And although some fret about a tighter regulatory regime, with the Fed likely to impose bank-like “stress tests” from 2014, others see stricter supervisory oversight as a reassuring plus given the group’s recent history. 然而，投资者仍看好 AIG 股票。这也是为什么他们仅仅在超过 AIG 账面价值一 半做交易的部分原因； 然而， 其他保险公司做交易一般都是接近账面价值或超出。 近来投资者喜欢定期将多出的现金支付给股东， 尽管公司致力于偿还债务以期维 持 A 级信誉度。由于金融危机期间大量的账目流失，在未来几年里 AIG 税单数 额会减少，收入会增加。与此同时，尽管一些人担心更严格的监管制度，2014 年起美联储似乎会强迫银行相关行业进行“压力测试” 。鉴于公司近来发展历程 出台更严格的监管制度，但是其他公司看待新制度倒像是吃了一颗定心丸。 AIG certainly has a new-found air of confidence. A recent ad campaign featured its employees thanking America for the bail-out, implying that this unpleasant episode is now firmly in its past. The firm has reverted to selling general insurance under the AIG brand, having opted for the generic “Chartis” at the height of the crisis. By any measure, this has been a remarkable comeback. But it will be sealed only when the insurance company that those Washington crazies deemed fit to salvage shows it can compete with rivals who did not benefit from taxpayer largesse. 信心之源， 肯定是因为 AIG 找到新的发展空间。 近来广告活动的特色就是员工感 谢政府的紧急救助，暗示出那一段不愉快的插曲现在的确已成为历史了。公司转 变经营策略： AIG 的品牌销售一般性保险产品， 以 并且以金融危机下的危机感选 择“美亚保险” 。无论以什么样的衡量标准，这都是一个引人关注的强势回归。 但是， 只有华盛顿那些蠢货认为可以救助的保险公司显示出能与那些没有从纳税 人慷慨之下获利的对手抗衡的能力时，AIG 回归才能成为板上钉钉的事。The Icesave ruling 冰岛网路储蓄银行破产案件判决结果 In the cooler 外国储户处境艰难 A court ruling over an Icelandic bank is a blow to global banking 冰岛银行案件的判决结果打击全球银行业[键入文字]Feb 2nd 2013 |From the print edition “GORDON BROWN will be long remembered in my country for centuries to come, long after he has been completely forgotten in Britain.” The bitterness still voiced by Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, Iceland’s president, at the 2008 decision by Britain’s former prime minister to invoke anti-terrorism laws to freeze the assets of a failed Icelandic bank was chilly even for Davos. A January 28th ruling by a little -known European court may have warmed Mr Grimsson’s heart a little. “戈登?布朗（Gordon Brown）即便在英国被彻底遗忘很久之后，仍然会被冰 岛人民继续惦记几个世纪。 ”2008 年，前英国首相戈登?布朗启动反恐法，冻结 一家倒闭的冰岛银行在英国的资产。冰岛总统奥拉维尔?拉格纳?格里姆松 （Olafur Ragnar Grimsson）对此决定一直心存积怨，他的上述言论甚至让达沃 斯论坛上的人们都感到了凉意。1 月 28 日，一个不太出名的欧洲法庭做出的判 决或许让格里姆松心生一丝温暖。 The ruling, delivered in Luxembourg by the European Free-Trade Association Court, dealt with the collapse of Icesave, an online subsidiary of Iceland’s Landsbanki. Before the crisis Icesave had used a European “passport” to open branches abroad and collected deposits in Britain and the Netherlands with almost no oversight from regulators in those countries. One condition of its passport was that it promised that its deposits were backed by a national deposit-insurance scheme in Iceland. Yet when the bank collapsed Iceland’s deposit scheme was overwhelmed. Icelandic depositors in the bank ended up gett the British and Dutch governments both had to step in to compensate depositors in their countries. 欧洲自由贸易协会行政法庭在卢森堡对冰岛网路储蓄银行（Icesave）倒闭案件 做出了判决。该银行是冰岛国民银行（Landsbanki）的在线业务分支机构。破产 以前，Icesave 使用欧洲“通行证”在国外广设分支机构，并在英国和荷兰吸收 了大量存款，但是几乎没有受到两国的监管。Icesave 获得该通行证的一个条件 是它承诺其存款取得了冰岛存款保障计划的担保。 然而， Icesave 倒闭的时候， 当 冰岛存款计划却无力招架。该银行的冰岛储户顺利取回了存款；英、荷两国储户 的存款损失却不得不由他们的政府来弥补。 Many observers had expected the court to rule that Iceland was obliged to stand behind its national deposit-protection plan and not to discriminate against foreign depositors. Instead the court found that Iceland was obliged only to make sure that it had a deposit-insurance scheme. The state was not required to pay out if the scheme had no money because of a banking crisis. Oddly, the court also found that Iceland had not breached an obligation not to discriminate between domestic and foreign depositors, even though it made only the domestic ones whole.[键入文字]许多观察员曾期望该法庭判定冰岛有义务支援其国家存款保障计划偿还存款并 不得歧视外国储户。 然而该法庭判定冰岛仅有义务保证存款保险计划是实际存在 的。在银行业危机导致该计划破产的情况下，该国不必出资代为偿还储户。奇怪 的是，即便冰岛仅偿还了国内储户，该法庭仍判定它并没有违背不区别对待国内 和国外储户的约定。 The questions addressed by the court may seem anachronistic: European law on deposit protection has been extensively rewritten since the crisis. Yet the ruling is another warning to those who hope that regulators can strike binding agreements on how they will share the costs of a future banking crisis. Supervisors in America are already trying to ensure that foreign banks there operate as separately capitalised subsidiaries, so they do not have to rely on the vigilance of foreign regulators. Hopes that Europe’s banking union will include a mutual deposit-guarantee scheme are in any case faint. This week’s ruling will only weaken confidence in the willingness of countries to bail out foreign creditors. 该法庭解决的问题或许已经过时了： 这场危机之后欧洲存款保护的相关法律已经 被广泛地重新修定了。 然而这一案件的判决结果再次警告了那些希冀政府管理者 能就共同承担将来银行危机的代价达成具有约束力的协议的人。 美国监管者已在 尽力确保那里的外国银行作为资本独立的子公司来运营， 这样他们就不必依赖外 国政府管理者的警示。 在欧洲银行联盟里建立互相存款担保机制的希望是很渺茫 的。 本周的判决结果只会让人们难以相信各个国家会情愿帮助外国债权人摆脱困 境。Free exchange 自由贸易 The autopilot solution 自动解决方案 How notional savings accounts could put state pensions on a sustainable trajectory 名义储蓄是怎样将国家养老金计划拉入可持续轨道 Feb 2nd 2013|From the print edition[键入文字]THE economic and financial storms of recent years have already battered public finances in the developed world. Now an even bigger threat looms. As populations grow older more pensioners will rely upon fewer workers for their income: in the European Union (EU) the old-age dependency ratio (those aged 65 and more as a share of 20- to 64-year-olds) is projected to go from 28% to 58% in the next 50 years. It is a similar story in many developing countries. China’s working-age population is starting to shrink, for example. Without reform, these dire demographic trends will test many state-pension schemes to destruction. 最近几年的金融风暴使得发达国家的公共财政饱受重创， 现在另一个大问题又出 现了：随着人口老年化加剧，越来越少的工人为老人提供养老资金了。在接下来 的 50 年里，欧盟国家的老年人口抚养比（65 岁及以上人口与 20―60 岁人口之 比）预计从 28%达到 58%。许多发展中国家情况也类似，比如，中国的劳动力 人口数量开始下降。如果不进行改革，这糟糕的人口老年龄化趋势将导致许多国 家的养老计划遭受毁灭性打击。 In most developed countries public pensions have two main features. They are financed through “pay-as-you-go” (PAYG): today’s workers pay for today’s pensioners. And they offer defined benefits, in some cases flat-rate but more generally linked to earnings. Having a dwindling pool of contributors finance such benefits for a longer-living pensioner population is a recipe for disaster. One solution is to adopt notional defined-contribution (NDC) schemes, a direction first taken by Sweden in the 1990s. 在大部分发达国家里，公共养老金有两大显著特点，他们是现收现付制的：今天[键入文字]的劳动力为今天的老人养老买单。他们提供规定的养老金，有些情况下统一养老 金发放，但大部分情况下与收入挂钩。解决此难题就是减少养老金发放使那些寿 命长的人也享受福利。其中一个解决办法就是采用瑞典 90 年代首次采取的方案 ――名义性的确定缴费型方案。 The NDC model keeps the PAYG financing, but rather than defining the benefits that people get out, it defines the contributions that people pay in. The effect is to build financial sustainability into the design. In EU projections out to 2060 published last year by the European Commission, the countries that were the first to switch to NDCs―Latvia, Italy and Poland along with Sweden―stand out for keeping public spending on pensions stable or falling even as their populations age. A recent assessment of NDC schemes published by the World Bank was broadly positive*. 名义性的确定缴费模型继续使用现收现付制， 但其明确了老人的养老金数额和劳 动力的支付情况，使其经济稳定在预定计划内。欧盟委员会去年发布的到 2060 年的欧盟预测指出，拉脱维亚，意大利，波兰这些国家和瑞典一起首次采用名义 性的确定缴费型方案， 在老年化加剧时却坚持主张稳定甚至减少公共养老资金支 出。世界银行最近发布的名义性的确定缴费型评估方案意义具有广泛的积极意 义。 How does it work? The contribution rate is fixed a in Sweden, for example, it is 16% of earnings. Although these contributions are in fact used to pay for the pensions due today, they are also counted towards notional accounts, which mimic the actual ones found in privately funded defined-contribution (DC) schemes. The notional capital in these accounts earns a return equal to the growth in the national wage-bill on which the contributions are levied. At retirement the nest eggs are annuitised (ie, converted into annual payments) just as they are in a privately funded pension plan―except that the money comes from contributions made by people who are then working. 这样真的有效果吗？供款率已被固定在能承担的范围内，比如在瑞典，它占收入 的 16%，尽管他们现在所支付的钱被用来支付现在的养老金，但名义上账户上 的帐还是有的，这是效仿私人资助的界定供款计划。名义账户上的资本赚得的利 息与国家薪资征税的增长相持平。就像私人资助退休金计划，每年向退休人员发 放退休储蓄金，只是这些资金来出自那些工作的人那里。 The attraction of this system is that it avoids costly procrastination and piecemeal interventions by politicians. By fixing the contribution rate, the rest of the pension system has to adjust when its financial viability is threatened. The NDC model’s greatest strength is the way that it automatically responds to rising[键入文字]longevity―a crucial reason why traditional public pensions have run into trouble. As life expectancy at retirement increases the NDC annuity formula becomes less generous, which cuts the value of pensions. And if the workforce shrinks, that reduces growth in the earnings base, which l wers the returns on the “capital” in o the notional accounts. 此措施吸引人的地方在于它避免了高昂的延迟和政客们的不间断的干扰政策。 通 过稳定供款率，剩下需要做的就是在经济不稳定时调整退休金制度，名义性的确 定缴费型模型的巨大优势在于自动地对人们日益增长的寿命进行调整， 这也是为 什么传统的公共退休金计划陷入困境的关键原因。随着退休人员寿命的增长，名 义性的确定缴费型方案变得不那么慷慨了，他减少了退休金数额。如果劳动力减 少，导致收入基数减少，那样就降低了名义账户的资本回报了。 Imposing financial sustainability through ever-lower benefits may well be politically untenable as a large generation of baby-boomers moves into retirement. Not all of the adjustment has to come through l wer benefits, however. o Individuals can also choose to work longer. Unlike traditional schemes where the link between what workers pay in and what they get out as pensioners is tenuous, the NDC’s tight link between earnings (and thus contributions) and pensions encourages people of all ages to work. This is particularly important for older employees who are confronted far more explicitly with the trade-off between stingier pensions and working longer. 随着婴儿潮一代的大批人进入退休年龄， 从政治上讲通过降低福利来强制稳定经 济的观点是根本站不住脚的，并不是所有的调整都是通过降低福利为代价的。个 人可以选择工作更长时间，传统的方案中，工人们之前支付的资金与他们退休时 拿到的退休金之间的关联不是很大，名义性的确定缴费型方案中收入（也就是供 款率）与退休金数额关系紧密，促使各年龄的人们努力工作。老员工更加清醒地 在吝啬的退休金和更长时间的工作之间权衡得失，这一点尤其重要。 The NDC model is not for everyone. In the rich world places like New Zealand, whose flat-rate pension systems are based on providing the same (lowish) benefits to everyone who is eligible, would find an earnings-related scheme more expensive. But the NDC approach suits the bigger group of nations that already have earnings-related schemes. Indeed, it may not be necessary to replace them wholesale, since some NDC principles can be built into existing models. Germany, for example, has introduced a demographic-sustainability factor that curbs costs automatically. 名义性的确定缴费型模型并不适用于每个国家。在像新西兰这样富裕的国家里， 它为每一个符合条件的老人提供相同的福利（尽管有点低） ，在此基础上建立了[键入文字]统一退休金制度， 这样就会发现与收入挂钩的名义性的确定缴费型方案代价会更 加高昂。 名义性的确定缴费型方案适用于那些已有与收入挂钩的方案的更大的国 家集团。的确，由于名义性的确定缴费型方案可以与已存在的方案结合，没有必 要用此方案大量替换别的方案。比如说，德国引入能自动抑制养老成本的人口可 持续发展因子。Chile out 效仿智利，去其糟粕 Emerging markets have a freer hand than developed economies to make big changes, because their pension schemes are less mature. But the administrative demands of NDC schemes, which include the tracking of millions of accounts over time, are too exacting for the least developed economies. Where they could work is in a middle tier of countries, like rapidly ageing China, that have got the institutions to make the schemes function. 由于其养老方案不太成熟，发展中国家的新兴市场比发达国家经济体更加自由， 可以做大的改革。由于名义性的确定缴费型方案的行政需要，多年来跟踪调查数 百万的账户，使得其方案对于欠发达经济体要求过高，对于像迅速进入老年化的 中国这样的中间层国家来说，此方案能发挥作用。 For emerging economies with that sort of institutional capacity, the NDC design also overcomes the snags in an earlier reform strategy pioneered by Chile when it changed its pension system in the early 1980s. The Chilean approach was to switch from PAYG schemes to mandatory funded-DC savings accounts, which meant that the contributions that had formerly financed pensioners of the time were diverted into the workers’ saving accounts, with general taxes having to pay for current pensions. The NDC model dodges this “double burden” on the working generation. It also avoids the risks of relying too heavily on the markets to deliver pensions. 对于具有体制能力的新兴经济体，名义性的确定缴费型方案克服了 80 年代早期 智利率先实行的养老改革方案中的小问题。 智利从原来的现收现付制方案转为养 老强制基金个人账户制，这意味着之前交纳的资金转到工人的账户里，一般性税 收用来支付当前养老金。名义性的确定缴费模型避免了工薪阶层的双重负担，同 时还避免了过度依赖市场来发放养老金。 The NDC solution is only one part of the answer to the pensions conundrum. Retirement income should also rest on a privately funded pillar, which can provide higher, if more volatile, returns. But for many countries, the NDC design provides a[键入文字]plausible way of taming the costs of public pensions. 名义性的确定缴费型方案只是解决了养老中的一部分难题， 退休收入应该以能提 供更多资金的私人资助为支柱，如果资助不稳定，那就返回到名义性的确定缴费 型方案上来。对于许多国家来说，名义性的确定缴费型方案为他们提供了一种似 乎可信的管理公共养老金的方法。The Big Mac index 巨无霸指数 Bunfight 一个汉堡引发的争端 Currency wars: the burger’s verdict 货币战争：汉堡包的证词 Feb 2nd 2013 | Washington, DC |From the print edition[键入文字]AN OLD beef is again dividing the world of international finance: the spectre of “currency wars”. Jens Weidmann, the head of Germany’s Bundesbank, recently fretted that central-bank efforts to revive flagging economies could lead to an “increasing politicisation of exchange rates”. Bill Gross of PIMCO, a huge bond-fund manager, reckons the world is entering a spiral of competitive devaluations reminiscent of the 1930s, as economies anxious for growth massage their currencies downward to give exporters a boost. What does burgernomics have to say?[键入文字]“货币战争”论阴魂不散，令国际金融界为此再次争吵不休。德国央行行长魏德 曼(Jens Weidmann)最近表示，他担心该行帮助他国重振经济摆脱低迷的努力有 可能使得“汇率日益政治化” 。大型债务基金管理公司太平洋投资管 理公司 （PIMCO）的比尔?格罗斯（Bill Gross）认为，和二十世纪三十年代的情况相似， 世界经济陷入了一种恶性竞争状态， 迫切要求经济增长的经济体纷纷压低本国货 币币值，来促进出口增长。那么巨无霸指数反映出什么现象呢？ The Big Mac index is The Economist’s lighthearted analysis of foreign-exchange rates. Its secret sauce is the theory of purchasing-power parity (PPP), according to which prices and exchange rates should adjust over the long run, so that identical baskets of tradable goods cost the same across countries. Our basket contains only a Big Mac, and relies on the efforts of McDonald’s to produce identical products from the same ingredients everywhere (or almost everywhere: for India we use the Maharaja Mac, which contains chicken rather than beef) 巨无霸指数是《经济学人》对外汇的一种简易分析法。它的秘方其实是购买力平 价理论，该理论要求汇率应当根据购买力平价来调整，使得购买同一揽子商品在 不同的国家花费相同。我们这一揽子商品只包括一个巨无霸汉堡，因为麦当劳在 世界各国生产出售的巨无霸汉堡原料是一样的（或说几乎是一样的：在印度，我 们用的是王公汉堡，里面是牛肉而不是鸡肉） 。 At market exchange rates, the Canadian version of the burger costs $5.39, compared with an average price of $4.37 in America. By our reckoning, then, the Canadian dollar is roughly 24% overvalued relative to its American counterpart. In Mexico, by contrast, a Big Mac is just $2.90 at market exchange rates, suggesting the peso is 33% below its long-run value relative to the dollar. The greenback buys much more Big Mac south of the border than north of it. 按照市场交换率来算，巨无霸在加拿大卖 5.39 美元，在美国平均卖 4.37 美元。 于是我们认为，加拿大元对美元的汇率被高估了大约 24%。相比之下，按市场 交换率算，墨西哥的巨无霸价格仅为 2.90 美元，这意味着比索对美元的汇率比 它的长期价值低 33%。同样的美元在国境以南能买到的巨无霸数量比在国境以 北要多得多。 The Big Mac index suggests that currencies are particularly overvalued in Norway, Switzerland and Brazil (see chart). The continuing strength of the real is a big source of irritation to Brazil’s finance minister, Guido Mantega, who first trumpeted the phrase “currency wars” in 2010. Brazil battled back by introducing capital controls in the form of taxes on foreign purchases of Brazilian securities, but the currency remains overvalued. In December Brazil notched a record current-account deficit as its exports tumbled, contributing to a slide in the economy’s growth prospects. Switzerland handled its overcooked currency by pegging its franc to the euro in 2011. That halted the Swiss franc’s appreciation[键入文字]against the then-beleaguered single currency, although not against the dollar. 巨无霸指数还显示挪威、瑞士和巴西的货币尤其被高估了（如图） 。真相的不断 打击令巴西财长曼蒂加（Guido Mantega）非常恼怒。2010 年，正是他最先鼓吹 “货币战争”一说的。为了予以回击，巴西通过对外资购买巴西证券征税来加强 资本控制，但其货币币值仍然被高估。十二月，巴西出口暴跌，经常账户赤字创 下历史新高，经济增长前景雪上加霜。2011 年，瑞士将瑞士法郎与欧元绑定， 来解决货币高估问题。这使得瑞士对欧元暂停升值，而对美元则没有。当时欧元 这一单一货币是被围攻的。 Currencies in much of the emerging world, including Russia, China, and India, are too cheap relative to the dollar on our gauge. Critics of burgernomics say that you would expect average prices to be cheaper in poor countries than in rich ones because labour costs are lower: PPP signals where exchange rates should head over the long run, as a country like China gets richer, not where prices should be right now. Even so, the perennially undervalued yuan has scarcely moved towards the Big Mac measure of fair value. That, many reckon, is down to meddling by the chefs at the People’s Bank of China, who are relying on export growth for sustenance: China posted a larger-than-expected $36.1 billion trade surplus in December, thanks to 14% growth in exports year-on-year. 按照我们的衡量标准，包括俄罗斯、中国和印度在内的新兴经济体，其货币对美 元的汇率都是过低的。 反对巨无霸指数的批评人士认为穷国的平均物价应当是比 富国要低的，因为劳动力成本低：购买力平价是一个国家（比如中国）变富之后 汇率长期内要达到的水平，而不是按照当下的价格水平来计算。即便如此，价值 一直被压低的人民币也几乎没有朝巨无霸指数指向的公平价值方向变化。 究其原 因，是中国人民银行在从中操控，因为中国要靠出口增长来维持经济发展：中国 十二月公布称，由于出口量年增长达 14%，贸易顺差超人意料地达到了 361 亿 美元。 Japan is the country that caused the most recent talk of currency battles. The new government’s plan to reflate the economy with fiscal and monetary stimulus has helped drive the value of the yen down in recent months. The Big Mac index put the yen close to fair value against the dollar in J it is more than 19% undervalued now. That’s a tasty development for Japanese exporters but indigestible news for rivals. 说到货币战争，人们最常提的是日本。新一届政府计划通过财政和货币手段刺激 经济，再度引发通胀，让连月来持续走低的日元价值回升。七月时，日元对美元 的汇率符合巨无霸指数给出的公平价值，而现在则被低估了 19%以上。这对于 日本出口商来说是利好消息，但是对竞争者来说就难以接受了。 Europeans are feeling particularly chippy. The euro is now around 12% too expensive relative to the dollar, ac in the summer of 2012 it[键入文字]was close to fair value. The euro has strengthened in recent months as fears of a euro-area break-up have receded, but many Europeans also point the finger at currency manipulation. The European Central Bank has done little to boost an ailing euro-area economy even as other central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, have acted aggressively to add sauce to their economies. If the single currency keeps rising, euro-area exporters will end up in a pickle. 欧洲人怨气尤盛。根据我们的衡量，欧元对美元的汇率现在虚高 12%，2012 年 的夏天时是接近公平价值的。由于人们又在担忧欧元区分裂，所以最近几个月里 欧元走强，但是很多欧洲人对汇率操纵颇为不满。欧洲央行在重振欧元区经济状 况方面作为甚少，倒是美联储、英格兰银行等其他央行在大刀阔斧地改善经济。 如果这个单一货币再升值下去，欧元区的出口商麻烦就大了。Parsing prices 价格分析 Rising inflation is not as worrisome as it appears, at least for now 通胀没有看上去那么可怕，至少现在如此 Inflation around the world 全球通胀 Feb 3rd 2011 | from PRINT EDITION[键入文字]INFLATION is back. Despite a weak recovery in much of the worl , the threat of d rising prices preoccupies policymakers and the public. Concerns are greatest in emerging markets. Inflation stands at 4.6% in China and 5.9% in B in India it is almost 10%, if below last year’s high. But it is on the rich world’s agenda, too (see chart). 通胀回来了。尽管世界上大部分地区有略微的恢复，但是价格上涨的威胁仍萦绕 在政策制定者和公众的心头。这种焦虑在新兴市场最为严重。中国通胀率维持在 4.6%， 巴西是 5.9%,在印度， 如果说通胀率比去年最高点低的话也达到了近 10%。 但是，通胀也提上了富国的议事日程。 （见图） Euro-area inflation hit 2.4% in January, according to data out this week. Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of the European Central Bank, has been talking tough, recalling the ECB’s July 2008 rate rise when concern over inflation trumped a wobbling economy. In Britain inflation has been above its 2% target since December 2009 and stood at 3.7% in December. Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, gave warning in January that it wil l soon climb to 4-5%. Even in America, where inflation has been at historic lows, it jumped to 1.5% at the end of last year. 根据本周发布的数据，欧元区 1 月份的通胀率达 2.4%。欧洲中央银行行长让克罗德?特里谢（Jean-Claude Trichet）回忆起欧洲央行 2008 年 7 月上调利率，[键入文字]那时通胀的忧虑超过了了摇摇欲坠的经济。在英国，通胀从 2009 年 12 月起通 胀已超过其 2%的目标，2010 年 12 月保持在 3.7%。英国央行行长默文-金 （Mervyn King）1 月警告通胀率很快就会攀升至 4-5%。甚至在通胀率一直位于 历史最低点的美国去年年底也上涨到 1.5%。 Much of the surge in inflation reflects dearer commodities. As well as oil and food, metals prices have been soaring: the price of copper hit a series of record highs this week. More expensive raw materials will work their way through the supply chain over the coming months, pushing up on inflation. Another part of the story in Europe is the effort to plug fiscal gaps by increasing VAT, a consumption tax. A hike in VAT at the start of the year will have driven prices higher in Britain in January. 通胀的急剧上升反映出商品的日益昂贵。金属、油和食品价格一直飞涨：本周铜 价创一系列历史最高。在未来几月，更多的昂贵的原材料会通过供应链推高通胀 率。欧洲正增加增值税（一种消费税）以填补财政赤字。伦敦新年伊始增值税的 增长将推动 1 月价格水平上涨。 A rise in commodity prices or taxes has only a temporary effect on inflation, however, with the price rise dropping out of annual comparisons after a year. The stuff of nightmares for central bankers is that this leads to a more pernicious type of inflation. Price rises change expectations of inflation, leading workers to bid for wage increases that preserve their buying power and firms to push through price increases, generating a vicious spiral. 然而，商品价格或税收的增长只能暂时影响通胀，因为一年后价格上涨将不具可 比性。让央行行长们夜不能寐的是这将导致一种更恶性的通胀。价格上涨改变通 胀预期，致使工人为维持购买力而要求涨工资，企业推动价格上涨，从而产生一 个恶性工资-价格螺旋。 These “second-round effects” are worth losing sleep over, but only when there is already inflationary pressure in the wider economy, from a tight labour market and firms running factories at full pelt. Such overheating seems some way off for advanced economies. The unemployment rate is in double digits in the euro area, above 9% in America and 7.9% in Britain. Wage growth has been weak, running below 1% in the euro zone and at around 2% in America and Britain. 只有劳动力市场紧缩，企业利用全部产能，致使在更大范围的经济已经存在通胀 压力时，这些“第二轮效应”才值得人们为之辗转反侧。这种过热似乎对发达国 家来说遥不可及。欧元区失业率达两位数，在美国超过 9%，在英国超过 7.9%。 工资涨幅不大，欧元区不到 1%，而美国和英国在 2%左右。[键入文字]Inflation expectations have edged up a little in recent months. But even if workers expected inflation to let rip, they would be in a bind. Karen Ward of HSBC reckons anxious employees won’t ask for more pay for fear that they will end up getting the sack instead. 通胀预期在最近几个月已经略微加强。但是即使工人预期通胀会失控，他们仍无 能为力。汇丰银行的 Karen Ward 估计，焦急的员工因为害怕被解雇而不会要求 加薪。 Rich-world economies are also running well below capacity. According to the OECD, in 2010 the G7 economies were anywhere between 2.4% (Japan) and 4.7% (Italy) below potential output. Such estimates are notoriously imprecise. But if the recovery had already eliminated excess capacity they would be in the wrong city, not just the wrong ballpark. 发达国家经济经济资源远未达到充分利用。根据经济合作发展组织（OECD） ， 2010 年七国集团经济实际产出低于潜在产出，差额为 2.4%（日本）至 4.7%（意 大利）之间。那类估计十分不准确。但是如果复苏已经消除过剩产能，则错误之 处就不仅是细枝末节而是大前提就错了。 The story is very different in emerging economies. Many of these got back to their pre-crisis levels of output in 2009. With capacity constraints starting to bite, underlying inflation is on the up. Households’ inflation expectations are also rising. In China they are at their highest for over a decade and there are signs of growing wage pressure. Higher wages are not, by themselves, a bad thing, especially in a country like China where pay has for years failed to keep pace with rapid productivity growth. The danger comes when loose monetary conditions and an overheating economy mean prices and wages chase each other upward. 新兴市场的情况大为不同。 很多新型经济体于 2009 年恢复到危机前的产出水平。 产能水平开始起限制作用，通胀开始上升。居民的通胀预期也在增长。中国通胀 已达十多年来最高水平出现工资上涨压力的迹象。更高工资本身并不是件坏事， 尤其是在中国这样一个多年工资增长赶不上生产力增长的国家。 但宽松的货币状 况和过热的经济意味着价格和工资彼此追赶螺旋上升时，危险就来了。 To prevent that, central bankers have been fighting back with higher interest rates and higher reserve requirements. The Brazilian and Indian central banks rai in total, they have now hiked their policy rates by 2.5 and 1.75 percentage points respectively. China’s central bank recently raised reserve requirements for the seventh time in a year.[键入文字]为了控制工资-价格螺旋上升，央行的银行家们一直通过加息和上调准备金率予 以回击。上月巴西和印度央行上调利率；现在他们已经分别上调 2.5 个百分点和 1.75 个百分点。中国央行最近进行了年内第七次上调准备金率。 For all that, monetary conditions remain extraordinarily loose. According to JPMorgan Chase, real policy rates in emerging economies―the official interest rate minus core consumer-price inflation―are at their lowest level since 2000. Core consumer-price inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) remains below its 2008 levels. But vigilance is needed. A continuation of booming growth and cheap money will cause trouble in the end. 尽管有上述一切措施，货币状况依然十分宽松，摩根大通表示，新兴市场的实际 利率（名义利率减核心消费价格通胀率）达到 2000 年以来的最低点。核心消费 价格通胀率（不包括食品和能源价格）保持在 2008 年水平以下。但是警惕是需 要的。最终，持续的经济过热和货币贬值将造成麻烦。 from PRINT EDITION | Finance and EconomicsRatings agencies 评级机构 Victim support 法不阿贵 America’s Justice Department charges Standard & Poor’s with fraud 美国司法部以诈骗罪起诉标准普尔 Feb 9th 2013 | New York |From the print edition[键入文字]I forget. Is this guy with Moody’s or S&P? 我忘了，这人是穆迪的还是标普的来着？ NO ONE suggests that the big three credit-rating agencies, Standard & Poor’s (S&P), Moody’s and Fitch, did a good job evaluating mortgage-backed securities before the financial crisis. Whether their shortcomings were also criminal is set to become clearer after this week’s decision by the Department of Justice to charge S&P with fraud. 大概没人会觉得三大信用评级机构――标准普尔、 穆迪和惠誉国际――在金融海 啸前所做的按揭证券评估值得嘉奖。是天生缺点，还是有意犯罪？答案即将揭晓 ――本周，司法部以诈骗罪对标准普尔提起诉讼。 A complaint filed in a Los Angeles federal court charged S&P with intentionally making “limited, adjusted and delayed updates” to its rating criteria and analytical models during a key period stretching from 2004 and 2007. This footdragging, the complaint alleges, led to overly favourable ratings for structured debt securities, which in turn produced massive losses for those investors who bought the highest-rated securities, and in particular for the Western Federal Corporate Credit Union (WesCorp), which ultimately failed. 在洛杉矶联邦法院的一份起诉书中，标准普尔被控于 2004 到 2007 年这段关键 时期，对其评级标准及分析模型进行了“不足，刻意调整且不及时的改动” 。该 起诉书声称，标普的迟疑不决导致对结构性债券的过高评级，给购买这些高评级 证券的投资方――尤其是最终倒闭的西部企业联邦信贷联盟 (WesCorp)――带 来巨额损失。[键入文字]The use of Los Angeles-based WesCorp in the complaint allowed the case to be filed in an unusual jurisdiction for a financial crime, but one the Justice Department doubtless believes is helpful to its cause. The case also enables the department to attempt a novel use of a law, the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act (FIRREA), which was passed in 1989 after the savings-and-loan crisis. Previous attempts to sue ratings agencies for their boom-era practices have foundered in part because of a l ng-standing argument o that their opinions are protected by the First Amendment of the constitution, which states that “Congress shall make no law…abridging the freedom of speech.” The government’s case under FIRREA is for civil fraud, however, and therefore sits outside the amendment’s protection. 这份起诉书援引了洛杉矶的西部企业联邦信贷联盟案例， 使其因涉及金融犯罪而 落入 （司法部的） 特殊管辖权， 而司法部无疑相信该案件有利于其打击金融犯罪。 该案亦使司法部有机会对 1989 年因储贷危机通过的《金融机构改革、复兴与强 化法案》(FIRREA)进行新运用。之前（司法部）对评级机构在泡沫期间行为进行 的控告， 均因长久以来第一修正案所保护的言论自由而落空。 该修正案规定， “国 会不得通过??任何妨碍言论自由的法律” 。而在本案中，援引《金融机构改革、 复兴与强化法案》起诉的是民事诈骗（而非言论自由） ，因而（标准普尔的行为） 不受第一修正案保护。 News of the charges unsettled investors. The share price of McGraw-Hill, S&P’s parent, dropped by 16% when news of the charges emerged on February 4th, and fell by another 10% the next day. Shares in Moody’s fell almost as steeply. 该新闻使投资者们陷入了不安。2 月 4 日，消息传开后，标普的母公司麦格罗希尔股价下跌 16%，次日又下跌了 10%，穆迪的股价跌势与之不相上下。 The 119-page complaint was filled with the usual excruciating excerpts from internal correspondence (for more of the same, see article ). In one, an “executive H” accused S&P of pandering to the opinions of underwriters and issuers out of concern that a tougher approach, however justified, might send business to more lenient raters. In another, an analyst circulated a parody of a Talking Heads song, “Burning Down the House”, that was based on the weakness of the housing market. The analyst later sent a video of himself performing the song to laughing colleagues. 在这份长达 119 页的起诉书中，对暗箱操作的指控比比皆是。 （类似案例，见 /news/finance-and-economics/-wideningscandal-threatens-suck-more-banks-and-ruin-more-careers-wrong）其中，包括[键入文字]一名“执行官 H”指责标普屈从于各大保险公司和证券发行商的施压，以免其严 格的评级方法将顾客拱手送人；以及一名分析师改编的传声头像乐队经典歌曲 《烧毁的房屋》 ，以此嘲讽房地产市场的（评级）缺陷。 S&P’s reaction to the charges was unequivocal. It vowed to fight and, in a press release, said that comments in the complaint had been “cherry-picked” and taken out of context during a period when there had been “robust” internal debates about deterioration in the housing market. As the complaint itself makes clear, there had also been serious debate about how to evaluate securities in a fast-growing but complex area. All of the securities in question had received identical ratings from another agency, S&P noted, suggesting its opinions reflected a broad consensus. 标普对该指控的回应可谓毫不含糊。他们不仅“宣誓”开战，还在一场新闻发布 会上宣称，起诉书中的论据，均断章取义自公司内部一次关于房地产市场衰退的 “激烈”辩论。正如起诉书中提到的那样，他们对如何评估这一迅速增长又过于 复杂的市场也存在争议。标普称，所有含疑的证券评级都与其他评级机构保持一 致，说明他们他们的意见是基于市场共识的。 Missing entirely from the Justice Department’s complaint is any sense of the responsibility borne by the entities that purchased the wrongly rated securities. WesCorp, for example, was a particularly odd institution, a credit union for other credit unions that had been extremely gung-ho about housing. It collapsed amid accusations of pervasive mismanagement. Other “victims” of S&P ratings that were cited in the federal complaint include Citibank and Bank of America. And a series of follow-up lawsuits this week included one from California’s state attorney-general on behalf of CalPERS and CalSTRS, two vast pension funds. 而在司法部的这份起诉书中， 完全没有提到那些购买错误评级债券的投资方自身 的责任。比如，西部企业联邦信贷联盟便是一家特别古怪的机构，由其他异常热 衷于房地产投资的信贷联盟结盟而成，并最终在经营不善的怒喝声中倒闭。该起 诉书中提到的标普评级“受害者”还包括花旗银行和美国银行。本周还有更多诉 讼尾随而行， 包括加州总检察官将代表 CalPERS 和 CalSTRS （加州政府雇员退休 系统和加州教师退休系统）这两家大型抚恤基金起诉标普。 Implicit in such suits is the premise that even the largest institutions lack the ability, or even the obligation, to do independent credit evaluations. The Justice Department has decided to put S&P in the dock. Inevitably, it will put investors on trial as well. 在这众多诉讼背后， 潜藏着一个前提――即使是最大的评级机构也缺乏做出独立 信用评估的能力，甚至缺乏必要的责任感。看来，司法部是决心要让标普偃旗息[键入文字]鼓，而个中黑手最终也难逃法网。 译者注： 1.受害者支援Victim Support）是一家独立公益机构，致力于帮助英格兰及 威尔士的犯罪受害人及目击者。此为暗示美司法部将为错误评级的受害者声援。 2.标准普尔（英语：Standard & Poor's，或又常译为史坦普）是一家世界权威金 融分析机构，总部位于美国纽约市，由普尔出版公司和标准统计公司于 1941 年 合并而成。标准普尔为投资者提供信用评级、独立分析研究、投资咨询等服务， 其中包括反映全球股市表现的标准普尔全球 1200 指数和为美国投资组合指数的 基 准 的 标 准 普 尔 500 指 数 等 一 系 列 指 数 。 其 母 公 司 为 麦 格 罗 ? 希 尔 （McGraw-Hill） 。 3.结构性融资（structured finance）是一个广泛的术语，用来描述被创造来透过 复杂的法律及公司实体以协助转移风险的一块金融领域。 这种风险转移被用于于 贷款债券化的创造而未制止承保标准的下跌，从而造成了 2000 年中期的信贷泡 沫，以及 2007 年至 2008 年的信贷崩溃和金融危机。 4.美国的信贷联盟是一种非盈利性、合作的金融机构，由其成员所拥有并经营， 以服务为目的，实行民主控制管理的信贷联盟，为其成员提供一个可以安全存款 和能以一个合理利率借款的地方。在金融海啸期间，北美五家最大的信贷联盟相 继公布出大规模的抵押证券账面亏损。 西部企业联邦信贷联盟(WCFCU)为该五家 信贷联盟之一，并最终倒闭。 5.20 世纪 70、 年代， 80 通胀高企导致市场利率攀升， 管制存款利率的 Q 条例(指 美联储按字母顺序排列的一系列金融条例中的第 Q 项规定)取消引发激烈竞争， 使得靠吸收短期储蓄存款、发放固定利率住房抵押贷款的储贷机构经营出现困 难，而监管当局对其业务范围、资本要求以及监管措施等的放松，促使其进入高 风险的投资领域，随后经济环境的恶化将许多储贷机构推向了破产的边缘。为应 对日益严重的危机，美国国会于 1989 年 8 月通过了《金融机构改革、复兴与强 化法案》 （Financial Institutions Reform Recovery and Enforcement Act, FIRREA） ， 创立重组信托公司（Resolution Trust Corporation，RTC）对出现问题的储贷机 构进行重组处置。 6.美国宪法第一修正案（简称第一修正案）是美国权利法案的一部份。该修正案 禁止制定任何法律以“确立国教” 、阻碍信仰自由、剥夺言论自由、侵犯出版自 由和集会自由、干涉或禁止人民向政府和平请愿的自由。 7.自金融危机爆发以来，已有 41 项针对标普的法律行动被撤销或是被驳回。标 普与其它评级机构最终占了上风，力证自己拥有宪法第一修正案所规定权利，即[键入文字]“国会不得制定法律??来剥夺言论自由” 。 8.传声头像（Talking Heads）是一支美国新浪潮乐团，在 1975 年于纽约市组建， 直至 1991 年解散。 1983 年， 其经典曲 《烧毁的房屋》 （Burning Down the House） 在 Hot 100 单曲榜中获得第九名。 9.目前除美国司法部外，另有 16 个州及哥伦比亚特区的总检察长加入了对标普 的起诉。其中加州检察院代表加州公务员退休基金提出诉讼，这是美国规模最大 的公共养老基金。美国当局目前并未对其他两大评级机构惠誉和穆迪提出诉讼。RBS and Libor 苏格兰皇家银行与伦敦银行同业拆借利率 The wrong stuff 品性不佳 A widening scandal threatens to suck in more banks, and ruin more careers 丑闻的影响逐步扩大，越来越多的银行面临被卷入的风险，越来越多的人因此事 业败落 Feb 9th 2013 |From the print edition THEY were said to be among the most talented of their generation, recruited after exhaustive interviews and gruelling internships. They worked at firms prepared to spend small fortunes to attract and retain them lest they take their skills elsewhere. Yet the moral bankruptcy of traders implicated in the rigging of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), one of the world’s most important interest rates, is matched only by the incompetence with which they covered their tracks. 他们被认为在同代人中最具才华，经过详尽面试、繁复实习才被雇佣。他们就职 的公司都准备着用一大笔钱吸引住他们，以免他们把自己的才华用在别处。但那 些卷入全球最重要的利率――伦敦银行同业拆借利率（LIBOR）――操纵丑闻的 交易员“道德银行”全线破产后，能与此次事件相提并论的就只有他们自掩行迹 时能力上的不足了。 （全球最重要利率 LIBOR 的操控丑闻显示了卷入其中的交易 员的道德败坏，而能与其道德底线相媲美的就是他们的低能了，从（以下）其掩 盖操控 LIBOR 行踪就可见一斑。 ） Take traders at the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), who left a trail of evidence in a trove of e-mails and audio recordings detailing how they set about trying to manipulate LIBOR, even after they knew investigators were looking into the issue. “We’re just not allowed to have those conversations over Bl omberg anymore,” o[键入文字]said one trader, laughingly, in a call to another who a little earlier had asked in writing for a rigged rate. “Its [sic] just amazing how libor fixing can make you that much money,” was the verdict of another trader. 就拿苏格兰皇家银行的交易员来说，即使已经知道调查员开始查这案子，他们还 是留下了电子邮件、录音等蕴藏一连串线索的宝藏，其中详细的记录着交易员们 是如何开始尝试操纵利率的。 “我们接到要求不能和彭博资讯谈论这些话题” ，一 位交易员在打给另一位稍早前书面要求操纵利率的交易员时说道 （一位交易员与 另一位此前要求为利率操纵背书的交易员通话时说到） 利率操纵是怎么能让你 。 “ 赚这么多钱的，这太让人惊讶了” ，这是来自另一个交易员的意见。 These exchanges, and many others, were part of a settlement announced on February 6th in which RBS admitted to rigging rates. It agreed to pay fines of $475m to American regulators and another ?87.5m ($137m) to Britain’s Financial Services Authority. By the arcane mathematics determining the severity of regulatory fines, RBS is adjudged not to have been as bad an offender as UBS, which last year agreed to pay penalties of $1.5 billion, but is being dealt with a bit more harshly than Barclays, which paid fines of ?290m. Regulators said they found attempts to rig LIBOR hundreds of times in at least four and a half years at RBS, compared with the “thousands” alleged in the case of UBS. 除上述对话外， 还有更多其他对话也都包含在了苏格兰皇家银行二月六日宣布承 认利率操纵的声明中。该行同意向美国监管局和英国金融服务局分别缴纳 4.75 亿美元罚款和 8750 万英镑（1.37 亿美元）罚款。用神秘的数学模型核算监管罚 款的严重性以后发现， 苏格兰皇家银行作为违规者来说并不如瑞士银行那么性质 恶劣，却又比巴克莱集团要严重一些：瑞银去年同意缴纳 15 亿美元罚金，而巴 克莱集团则只缴了 2.9 亿英镑。监管局表示至少四年半的时间里，他们发现苏格 兰皇家银行曾尝试数百次操纵伦敦同业拆借利率，但怀疑瑞士银行违规过“数千 次” 。 There is now a sense of routine about these settlements: the early leaks, the embarrassing e-mails, the big fines. That can make LIBOR seem like just another problem for banks to manage. RBS’s share price rose on the day of its settlement. Even setting aside the threat from litigation, that is to underplay the import of the scandal. 现在这套流程仿佛已成惯例：早期的泄密消息，令人堪宓挠始蠖罘？睢Ｕ 使得伦敦银行同业拆借利率看起来只是银行要解决的另一个问题。 苏格兰皇家银 行的股价在解决方案公布当日就出现上涨。即使将诉讼带来的威胁放在一边，这 也是低估丑闻案影响的表现。 First, whether they had any knowledge of wrongdoing at their bank or not, the executives who were in charge of investment banking at the time rate-rigging took place find themselves under pressure to leave. At Barclays that meant the[键入文字]departure of Bob Diamond, the bank’s former chief executive. At UBS almost the entire leadership team at the investment bank has changed (although many were undone by a separate rogue-trading scandal). At RBS John Hourican will leave as head of the investment-banking arm, despite not being directly implicated in the LIBOR affair. 首先， 无论利率操纵正发生时， 投行的主管人员对供职银行的不当行为是否了解， 他们都面临着离开银行的压力。对于巴克莱集团来说，这意味着银行前任首席执 行官鲍勃?戴蒙（Bob Diamond）的离职，对瑞士银行来说，意味着几乎整个 投行领导层的大换血（尽管有许多都因为流氓交易丑闻而没有实现） 。在苏格兰 皇家银行，John Hourican 将作为投行部的主管而离职，尽管他并没有直接卷入 操纵利率丑闻。 If regulators are demanding the heads of whoever was running the investment bank at the time of wrongdoing, whether they were complicit or not, that could make life uncomfortable for executives at banks yet to go through the regulatory wringer. On February 6th, for example, Deutsche Bank reportedly suspended several traders over the alleged manipulation of EURIBOR, a cousin of LIBOR. If Deutsche ends up in the same spotlight as RBS, Barclays and UBS, awkward questions will surely be asked of Anshu Jain, the co-chief executive of Deutsche Bank and the ex-head of its investment bank. 如果监管局想让投行行不当之事时在任主管都受到惩罚而无论他们是否知情的 话，这样的生活对于银行主管来说未免苦难，更不要说还要忍受监管敲诈了。就 拿 2 月 6 日的事来说，德意志银行报告了怀疑几位交易员涉及操纵欧洲银行同 业拆借利率。这是伦敦银行同业拆借利率的姊妹利率。如果德行向苏格兰银行， 巴克莱集团，瑞士银行那样高调收场的话，该行联合首席执行官，投资部前主管 也难免会面对棘手的问题。 Holding executives accountable is not without risks: good people may be forced out of banks when they need them most. But it does focus the mind. The second, lasting effect of the LIBOR scandal is to make bosses pay more attention to compliance and culture. “A lot of the bank CEOs I talk with don’t worry that regulatory change could shut them down,” says Ted Moynihan of Oliver Wyman, a consultancy. “But they see the conduct issue as potentially existential.” 让高管负责也不是没有风险：好人可能会在银行最需要他们的时候被逼走，但这 种做法确实能聚拢焦点。其次，受伦敦银行同业拆借利率丑闻余波的影响，大佬 们要更多的关注遵从性和文化。 “我聊过的很多银行 CEO 都不担心监管格局的变 化会让他们下课” ，奥维咨询公司的咨询师 Ted Moynihan 说道。 “但是他们将违 规行为视为潜在存在的东西。 ” The scandal has also hardened the views of regulators and politicians. The inadequate risk controls at RBS will reinforce a perception that some banks have[键入文字]become not merely too big to fail, but too complex to manage. UBS is slimming its investment bank radically. Barclays is planning to reduce the size of its wholesale bank. RBS may face pressure to shrink its investment bank further. The storm around LIBOR is less intense than it was but its consequences are immense. 丑闻案也使监管者和政治家的观点更趋于铁石心肠。 苏格兰银行暴露出的风险管 控不足问题使其他一些银行在“不只是大而不倒，还太复杂以至难以监管”的观 点中陷得更深。瑞士银行在大幅削减其投资业务。巴克莱公司计划缩减整个银行 业务的规模。苏格兰皇家银行可能将面对进一步缩减投资业务部的风险。围绕伦 敦银行同业拆借利率的暴风雨不像是开始时那么猛烈， 但它造成的结果依然难以 估量。【导言】 “旧时王谢堂前燕，飞入寻常百姓家” ，可是经济学家告诉我们，这一个 过程可能比我们想象的要长得多。 Free exchange 自由交流版块 Nomencracy 名门望族的天下 Surnames offer depressing clues to the extent of social mobility over generations 姓氏为我们提供了研究代际社会流动程度的线索，结果却令人沮丧 Feb 9th 2013 |From the print edition[键入文字]THE “Great Gatsby curve” is the name Alan Krueger, an economic adviser to Barack Obama, gave to the relationship between income inequality and social mobility across the generations. Mr Krueger used the phrase in a 2012 speech to describe the work of Miles Corak of the University of Ottawa, who has shown that more unequal economies tend to have less fluid societies. Mr Corak reckons that in some places, like America and Britain, around 50% of income differences in one generation are attributable to differences in the previous generation (in more egalitarian Scandinavia, the number is less than 30%). “了不起的盖茨比曲线”[2]描述的是代际间财富差距与社会流动性之间的关系， 由奥巴马经济顾问的阿兰?克鲁格提出。在 2012 年的一篇演讲中，克鲁格用这 一术语来解释渥太华大学迈尔斯?克拉克的著作，后者用研究表明：经济体发展 越不均等，社会越缺乏流动性。迈尔斯认为，在美国、英国等一些地方，某一代 人有 50%左右的收入差距要归因于上一代人（在平等主义更为盛行的斯堪的纳 维亚地区，这一数值要小于 30%） 。 Even that may paint too rosy a picture. Mr Corak’s work draws on recent studies that compare income levels between just two generations: fathers and sons. That good data covering three or more generations are scarce. But reliance on limited data could lead to overestimates of social mobility. 即便如此，这样描绘的社会图景也太过乐观了。迈尔斯[3]的著作参考了最近几 项研究，但这些研究只比较父辈与子辈两代人的收入水平。这样做既是出于研究 需要；同时也是因为涵盖三代人或更多代人的可靠数据较少。不过，仅凭两代人 的有限数据可能会对社会流动性做出过高估计。[键入文字]Gregory Clark, an economist at the University of California, Davis, notes that across a single generation some children of rich parents are bound to suffer random episodes of bad luck. Others will choose low-pay jobs for idiosyncratic reasons, like a wish to do charitable work. Such statistical noise makes society look more changeable than it is. Extrapolating the resulting mobility rates across many generations gives a misleadingly sunny view of long-term equality of opportunity. Mr Clark suggests that family history has large effects that persist for much greater spans of time. Fathers matter, but so do grandfathers and great-grandfathers. Indeed, it may take as long as 300-500 years for high- and low-status families to produce descendants with equal chances of being in various parts of the income spectrum. 加利福尼亚大学戴维斯分校的经济学家格雷戈里?克拉克指出，仅在一代人的范 围内，富家子弟免不了会碰到这样那样的不幸，其他孩子则会因为有志慈善事业 等种种独特原因选择低酬工作。 诸如此类的统计干扰使得社会显得比实际情况更 流动易变。而由此推断出的几代人间的流动率会让我们以为从长远上看，社会的 机会平等图景一片光明。格雷戈里用研究表明，家族史的影响会大得多，而且其 作用时间会持续更久。父亲很关键，但祖父、曾祖父同样很关键。事实上，可能 要花上三五百年， 才能使上流家庭与普通家庭的后代在各个收入阶层上出现的几 率相同。 Mr Clark confronts the lack of good data by gleaning information from rare surnames. You can tease mobility trends from surnames in two ways. One method relies on past links between certain names and high economic status. In a 2012 paper, for instance, Mr Clark examines prosperous Swedes. The unusual surnames of 17th-century aristocrats and the Latinised surnames (such as Linnaeus) adopted by highly educated 18th-century Swedes are both rare in the Swedish population as a whole. By tracking the overrepresentation of those names in elite positions, he is able to work out long-run mobility rates. 为了解决可靠数据不足的问题，格雷戈里选择从罕见姓氏中收集信息。要想从姓 氏中剥茧抽丝，有两种方法可供选择。一种方法是寻找某些特定姓氏同优越的经 济状况在历史上的联系。例如在 2012 年发表的一篇论文中，格雷戈里分析了瑞 典的名门望族。那些非同寻常的 17 世纪贵族姓氏以及 18 世纪某些家学渊源的 瑞典人传承的拉丁姓氏（比如像林奈姓）在瑞典社会中都非常稀有。格雷戈里发 现，这些家族的子弟在精英阶层中占有很高比例，通过追寻这一线索，格雷戈里 计算出了长期的社会流动率。 As late as 2011 aristocratic surnames appear among the ranks of lawyers, considered for this purpose a high-status position, at a frequency almost six times[键入文字]that of their occurrence in the population as a whole. Mr Clark reckons that even in famously mobile Sweden, some 70-80% of a family’s social status is transmitted from generation to generation across a span of centuries. Other economists use similar techniques to reveal comparable immobility in societies from 19th-century Spain to post-Qing-dynasty China. Inherited advantage is detectable for a very long time. 直至 2011 年，这些贵族姓氏的子孙仍频频出现在律师这样代表高社会阶层的队 伍中，且出现比例几乎是其所占人口比例的六倍。格雷戈里认为，即使是在以社 会流动良好著称的瑞典，在几个世纪的时间跨度内，也有约 70%-80%的家族社 会地位能得以代代相传。其他一些经济学家运用相似的手段，揭示了 19 世纪西 班牙以及中国民国初年可比较的社会留滞程度，在相当长的时间内，继承的优势 都清晰可见。 A second me